tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-54250473651640280052012-01-04T04:13:29.304-08:00Books and Investing in the Singapore Market.ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.comBlogger941100tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-67568559780618091762011-08-20T20:38:00.001-07:002011-08-20T20:53:23.476-07:00

Recently, I sold my full positions in Qingmei and Techcomp. Qingmei is sold, because reports on buzhida and Qingmei makes me uncomfortable. Techcomp is sold, because its profits may be dented by the HK listing fees and Europe fiscal woes. The stock sales incidentally help me to build up a sizeable cash pile, which enables me to buy some stocks (e.g. Eratat) last week. Given the present market

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-55240608268076239162011-07-01T21:34:00.000-07:002011-07-01T22:10:19.385-07:00

My portfolio as at 1 July consists of the following stocks: AIMSAMPREIT, Eratat, Heeton, Hongwei, Leader Environment, Qingmei, Sabana and TechcompSold: China TaisanChina Taisan is sold due to its poor Q1 results.Bought: Sabana ReitIntiate a stake in Sabana as it provides around 9.5% dividend yield.Added: Qingmei, Leader Environment, Heeton and Eratat,Leader is added after its good Q1 results.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-32183119861639027062011-04-03T03:49:00.000-07:002011-04-03T04:13:33.538-07:00

My portfolio, as at end March 2011, consist of the following stocks:AIMSAMPREIT, China Taisan, Eratat, Heeton, Hongwei, Leader Environment, Qingmei, TechcompBought and Sold: Heeton, Hiap Hoe, China FibreTech, BroadwayAdded to my holdings in Heeton and Hiap Hoe. Sold large position of Heeton and the whole position in Hiap Hoe after the government cooling measures. Broadway was bought under the

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-16795013925058951632011-02-22T05:07:00.000-08:002011-02-22T05:14:57.418-08:00

Falling prices. Posts on dread and losses on the forums. I losing money.However, I am feeling excited .. excited by the low prices. There is a sale going on in the market. The discount may get larger in the coming days, or it may narrow.But I think that the sale will end someday. The prices will get dearer someday.Meanwhile, I am browsing the stocks more closely, seeing if the discount will get

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-4016733883260916602011-02-16T05:28:00.000-08:002011-02-16T05:38:32.329-08:00

In my early investing years, I have devoured many investing books to improve my investing knowledge and to obtain more information so that I can settle down to a suitable style of investing. Below are the books that I find most valuable. Psychology I personally find psychology the most important element in investing. Investment Psychology Explained by Martin Pring Trade Your Way to

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-48636500717799153702011-01-08T02:22:00.000-08:002011-01-08T02:58:22.367-08:00

My portfolio, as at end Dec 2010, contains the following stocks: Guocoleisure, Eratat, Heeton, Hiap Hoe, Techcomp, Qingmei Sold: Valutronics, Roxy, Bright World, ZiwoBright World is sold at its mid-30s cents before its rise to 50 cents. All the stocks are sold to raise cash to buy other stocks.Bought and Sold: China Gaoxian (GX), HotungHave bought GX in October and dispose the entire position

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-26648502441067701132011-01-03T14:38:00.000-08:002011-01-03T14:39:25.508-08:00

Book Review: The Age of the Infovore ‘The Age of the Infovore’ is written by Tyler Cowen, an economics professor. The book is available in NLB. This book is thought-provoking but frustrating to read. The book belongs to those categories of books that read like a boomerang. That is, the book does not conclude or drill down to a few points. Rather, it keeps on expanding your perspective. The book

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-25859021268164037342010-12-17T00:06:00.000-08:002010-12-17T00:15:44.592-08:00

‘Risk and the Smart Investor’ is written by David X Martin. Interestingly, the author is a former risk manager of Citibank. The book is available in NLB. The book provides a risk management framework with anecdotes and a fictional story. It also contains some very practical advice on thinking and acting on risk. Overall, I find the book not bad. Interesting Points: a) Risk Management Framework

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-21707809056946636672010-12-11T00:07:00.000-08:002010-12-11T00:08:38.625-08:00

Billion-Dollar Lessons, What you can learn from the most inexcusable Business Failures of the Last 25 years is written by Paul Carroll and Chunka Mui. The book is available at NLB. I am a believer in learning from other people’s failures. Thus, I am happy to see this book available in NLB. The book has two portions. One is about the failure patterns and two is on how to avoid the same mistakes.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-30458145876021584702010-12-06T07:46:00.000-08:002010-12-06T08:10:57.290-08:00

I shall record some afterthoughts of my selling decisions in the last two months. First, I dispose my Bright World stake at around 35 cents, which is much lower than the 50+ cents now. What interests me is not the 'gains' lost. Rather, my interest is piqued by the thought that my lack of knowledge (or failure to predict) the quick rise in stock price is the cause for the gains lost. As I do not

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-17283384356897216522010-11-08T07:18:00.000-08:002010-11-08T07:39:43.981-08:00

In an earlier post, I expressed my regrets about not buying Best World:"I have another reason for selling Best World -- Q1 results are below my expectations. I did somewhat regret refusing to buy Best World back at higher price (compared to my selling price), as Best World seems fundamentally more solid relative to my other positions."My regrets arose because I felt that Best World's problems

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-72245830507837936622010-10-03T07:16:00.000-07:002010-10-03T07:46:02.245-07:00

This is a post on my portfolio holdings as at end Sept 2010.My portfolio, as at end Jun 2010, contains the following stocks:Bright World; China Gaoxian; Eratat; Heeton; Hiap HoeRoxy; Techcomp; Valutronics; ZiwoIn the quarter end Sept 2010, my portfolio has experienced some turnover, as I sold off the construction stocks and technology stocks; and bought more S-chips.Sold: HockLianSeng (HLS),

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-42646244525372334772010-07-18T09:05:00.000-07:002010-07-18T09:40:41.630-07:00

This is a post on my portfolio holdings as at end Jun 2010.My portfolio, as at end Jun 2010, contains the following stocks:Broadway;China Gaoxian; China Eratat; Heeton;HockLianSeng (HLS); Roxy; Ryobi; Techcomp;Viz branzIn the last quarter, my portfolio has experienced larger turnover, as I pared my positions during the downturn in May 2010 and increased my positions in

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-3035921785540728822010-05-21T23:24:00.000-07:002010-05-22T00:24:53.204-07:00

The Holy Grail of MacroEconomics: Lessons From Japan's Great Recession, by Richard Koo, talks aboun the macroeconomic lessons that can be learnt from Japan Recession and applied to the US Great Depression.Interesting Points:1) Japan's Recession is due to balance sheet recession. A balance sheet recession is one whereby the private firms seek to pay down debt and stops investment. These scenario

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-70737501505098538962010-04-30T23:45:00.000-07:002010-05-01T00:13:00.741-07:00

Trade-Off , by Kevin Maney, discuss his idea on the trade-off between high fidelity and high convenience. He defines fidelity as the total experience of something (e.g. concert).Interesting points:a) Fidelity vs convenience. Products/service must either position themselves as high fidelity or high convenience. Customers will always trade fidelity for convenience or convenience for fidelity (e.g.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-37766074847475469312010-04-26T08:49:00.000-07:002010-04-26T09:06:58.567-07:00

Success in investing doesn't correlate with I.Q. once you're above the level of 125. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that get other people into trouble in investing.-- Warren BuffettLots of people have used the above statement to illustrate that intelligence does not matter in investing. Well, they are wrong, if Buffet really meant IQ

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-32330078689799344662010-04-06T09:21:00.000-07:002010-04-06T09:44:24.559-07:00

Today, I have thought about the behavioral traps that I have fallen during the last few years, which include a stock market boom and a stock market burst. Trap #1: AnchoringWhen the market was trending downwards, I thought that the market was quite undervalued, compared to the valuations seen in the earlier stock market boom. It turns out that for some stocks, what was cheap turned to be cheaper.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-66824985488588980022010-04-05T03:15:00.000-07:002010-04-05T04:07:30.400-07:00

This is a post on my portfolio holdings as at end Dec 2009.My portfolio, as at end Dec 2009, contains the following stocks:Best WorldBroadwayChina ZainoFujian Zhenyun (FZ) PlasticsHeetonMetroTechcompUOAViz BranzSold: Fabchem, Tuan Sing, Guocoleisure,Fabchem is sold due to its results not meeting my expectations. Tuan Sing and Guocoleisure were sold not only for cash raising purpose but also due

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-82233769814204723632010-04-01T08:10:00.000-07:002010-04-01T08:27:44.601-07:00

Recently I've been reading the book "Hard Facts, Dangerous Half-Truths & Total Nonsense". The book has pointed out an very useful but easily overlooked idea.That is, we tend to look for common traits in Winners and think that we can be winners if we follow these common traits too. But sadly, focusing on the common Winners' traits is insufficient.One also has to compare these Winners' traits

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-31758541472326239942010-03-28T09:13:00.000-07:002010-04-01T08:10:20.733-07:00

The Greatest Trade Ever, by Gregory Zuckerman, is a very good and captivating read. In fact, I will recommend this book to any aspiring investor or trader.Interesting points that I have learnt from the book:1) Search for a sound idea. A good start may be 'Which market can I find mispricing?'2) Look at the odds and probabilities. Little Downside, Huge Upside, and High Probability of

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-52904874260792383212010-03-28T07:09:00.000-07:002010-03-28T07:15:15.805-07:00

Ultimi Barbarorum has a great post on differentiating between investor and journalist/blogger:http://ultimibarbarorum.com/2010/03/28/no-stock-recommendations-here-move-along/It's a topic that I would not have thought about, and yet it is one that I should have thought about, especially since I am a avid reader of blogs and news.And, I can't find myself re-reading and agreeing with this paragraph

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-63282418319192242982010-03-14T00:44:00.000-08:002010-03-14T01:17:09.236-08:00

How the Wise Decide is authored by Byrn Z and Aaron S. It is an interesting book as it profiles the good CEOs on how decision are made. Nevertheless, the book commit a common scientific error: the lack of control group. Interesting points: 1) Go to the source. Check with the source of the raw information before making the decision. - Make this approach routine. - Cultivate long-lasting contacts

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-78054226156412616532010-03-07T07:25:00.000-08:002010-03-07T07:55:19.936-08:00

How We Decide is written by Jonah Lehrer, an editor/writer.It is a good book, especially for people who wish to learn how to make better decisions. I will attempt to list some interesting points that I read from the book. Read the book if you wish to make better decisions.Some interesting points:1) We have two parallel brains: the emotional brain and the rational brain. 2) The emotional brain

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-20132985105466062052010-03-05T19:01:00.000-08:002010-03-05T19:33:52.130-08:00

It's interesting to see a thread on secrets to investing success in Next Insight. And in that thread, you'll see people advocating value investing, quoting Buffet, asking for high dividend stocks etc.It's interesting because I disagree.I disagree because I feel that there is no one secret to investing success. I think that each starting investor has to find their own path, and that path will be

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-60640915196340038432010-01-17T02:17:00.000-08:002010-01-17T02:47:08.225-08:00

Here, I shall provide answers to two issues I have raised two years ago.First, in my Dec 2007 book review, I have asked given the similarity of subprime crisis to the 1907 bank crisis, would the subprime crisis lead to liquidity crisis?The answer, as we all know, is yes. And to add, I do not know the answer at Dec 2007, and I did not expect that the subprime crisis will lead to a global economic

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-13623279620559856922010-01-03T08:18:00.000-08:002010-01-03T15:23:09.080-08:00

This is a post on my portfolio holdings as at end Dec 2009.My portfolio, as at end Dec 2009, contains the following stocks:BroadwayFabchemFujian Zhenyun (FZ) PlasticsGuocoleisureMetroTechcompTuan SingUOASold: China Eratat, Valutronics, UOA (sell a little proportion of my total holdings)China Eratat is sold to realise the declining profit, as price is falling from a mini-peak. In addition, China

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-57481730925821860572009-11-13T00:40:00.000-08:002009-11-13T01:39:37.790-08:00

This is a post on my portfolio holdings as at end Sept 2009.From Jun - Sep 2009, there have been many changes. My portfolio, as at end Sept 2009, contains the following stocks:China EratatFabchemFujian Zhenyun (FZ) PlasticsMetroTechcompUOAValutronicsSold: Adampak, China Sunsine, China Ziano, Etika, First Reit, Guthrie, Hong Fok, Jardine Strategic and Valutronics.Etika was sold during the early

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-17703958576543405212009-10-05T06:12:00.000-07:002009-10-05T06:43:57.135-07:00

This will be a post on my portfolio holdings as at 30 Jun 2009.From Mar - Jun 2009, there have been quite a number of changes. My portfolio, as at 30 Jun 2009, contains the following stocks:AdampakChina SunsineChina ZianoEtika (small stake)First ReitFujian Zhenyun (FZ)GuthrieHong FokJardine Strategic (JSH)ValutronicsSold: Sihuan, Pfood and Man Wah.Sihuan and Man were sold because I found better

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-91834482204860339452009-09-30T10:54:00.000-07:002009-09-30T11:05:15.664-07:00

7th lesson: Higher gains are needed to compensate losses (see table below). Well, this is a lesson that I have to re-remember. And since I am likely to inject capital into my portfolio during times of distress, I may need smaller percentage gains to recover from my losses (in dollars terms).

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-29146792243006993572009-07-27T08:04:00.000-07:002009-07-27T08:26:34.466-07:00

While my portfolio has yet to recover from its fall of 70%, it may be a good time for me to revist the lessons I have learn during this stock crisis.1st Lesson: 90%+ of the stocks fall drastically during a real stock crisis.This is probably why Michael Leong's advice is to sell all stocks during the onset of stock crisis. The cheap gets cheaper during stock crisis.2nd lesson: The last-third of

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-80495865765236770052009-04-11T20:30:00.000-07:002009-04-11T21:40:18.905-07:00

In recent months, there is a number of S-shares with suddenly collapsed share price due to non-normal reasons. In this post, I shall highlight a few associating factors on these S-shares.One, weak balance sheets. S-shares like Ferrochina and China Print & Dye has weak balance sheet. For example, before China Print & Dye collapsed, its current liabilities is greater than its equity. Weak balance

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-48333180810058595202009-03-04T06:54:00.000-08:002009-03-04T07:36:12.771-08:00

There has been some major changes to my portfolio over the last few months. My present portfolio look like this: Pfood Fujian Zhenyun (FZ) Sihuan China Ziano First Reit Man WahI have been quite active in the past 2 months:Sold Karin, Sinotech, China Fish, Changtian. Bought China Sky due to cash per share higher than share price and possibly low cash outflow in the near

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-74664699573179549092008-12-29T04:51:00.000-08:002008-12-29T05:03:27.033-08:00

Well, it's been a painful 2008. I have seen my portfolio dwindle to less than one-third YTD. I have stopped blogging for a few months, partly because of the losses, and partly because I am lazy. and busy 2008 also offers a rude awakening and an answer to my hypothetical question I have often posed to myself. Is my 2007 returns due to skill or luck? 2008 answers "luck". And so, I am the fool.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-18520818196851280712008-08-16T02:33:00.000-07:002008-08-16T02:45:46.494-07:00

As an investor, probably you can't help but to feel blue when the market is going down and down. Here, I shall describe a few ways to help an investor feel better.First, you can try changing your reference point. If you have started investing many years ago, instead of looking at year to date losses, why not look at the total gains since you have started investing?Next, you can try reviewing or

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-5609734620854855182008-08-03T03:50:00.000-07:002008-08-03T04:25:00.026-07:00

Recently I have been re-reading Nasim Taleb's excellent "Fooled by Randomness". I find a few thoughts surfacing in my mind.One, Taleb noted that good investing/trading performance can be due to randomness, even if the methodology is unsound. Consider a population of 10,000 unskilled investors who have a 60% chance to under-perform the market. Then at the end of 5 years, we will observe 102

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-75994520542265458952008-07-31T06:39:00.000-07:002008-07-31T06:48:06.903-07:00

I find Legg Mason Q2 2008 letter very interesting, especially from the hindsight bias perspective.Bill Miller has noted that many people has stated the obvious (i.e. he should have avoided housing stocks, financial stocks etc and he should have stocked up oil companies) from the events that have passed, but nobody is able to state what is obvious NOW. This implies that most (if not all) people

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-43510025527529726452008-06-27T09:32:00.000-07:002008-07-31T06:48:21.829-07:00

Q2 has almost passed. Presently, my portfolio contains: Sinotech Fujian Plastics Sihuan C&G Karin Valutronics ChangtianCacalo (missed out in the last post)Transactions made since last update:Bought: Changtian and C&GHave added more of Changtian and C&G as both have become cheaper.Year-to-date, my portfolio returns are negative at around -17.9%, slightly

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-59818743988457094482008-05-16T20:10:00.000-07:002008-05-18T19:29:15.424-07:00

Half of Q2 has passed. Presently, my portfolio contains: Sinotech Fujian Plastics Sihuan C&G Karin Valutronics Changtian Transactions made since last update:Sold: China Hongcheng and China PrecisionBought: Changtian and CacaloSold China Precision due to the unexpectedly poor Q1. China Hongcheng was sold due to two reasons. One, my original investment

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-74390942401204007542008-05-16T19:42:00.000-07:002008-05-16T20:10:32.194-07:00

Invest Like a Dealmaker is written by Christopher Mayer, an editor of two investment letter.The book will be an interesting addition to a value investor library, as it briefly introduces an value investor to other probably more obscure search method.The book started off by denoting two types of market, stockmarket and the private business market (or Wall Street vs Main Street). Following that, it

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-20531469589269439892008-03-29T22:23:00.000-07:002008-03-29T22:41:56.270-07:00

As Q1 is almost done, I shall provide an update of my portfolio here. My portfolio currently contains:Sino-tech Fiber China Precision Tech Fujian ZY Plastics Sihuan China Hongcheng Cacola C&G Karin ValutronicsTransactions made since last update:Bought and Sold: DutechBought: Sihuan, C&G and CacaloPartial Sold: Fujian ZYAs seen, my portfolio did not

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-13214835708742309622008-03-20T21:04:00.000-07:002008-03-20T21:31:22.946-07:00

Investing The Templeton Way is authored by Templetion's grand-niece, Lauren and her husband, Scott.The book would be a splendid addition to a value investor's library. The book elaborates on Templeton's principle of buying at maximum pessimism and his way of thinking in his recent exploits of the market (for example, shorting the Internet stocks in early 2000)Some interesting points are:1) The

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-34042736882482691202008-03-17T09:07:00.001-07:002008-03-20T21:31:43.683-07:00

If you do not know, from 1 April 2008, you will not be able to invest the first $20,000 in your Ordinary Account. (See here) This rule is because of the additional 1% government is offering us.The extra 1% will only push up the net returns to 3.5%, probably half of what one can get in a 20 year MSCI world stock index (assuming it's 7%). It seems that the government is forcing the younger adults

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-41377482534694277922008-02-24T06:06:00.000-08:002008-02-24T06:47:14.403-08:00

As half of Q1 has passed, my portfolio now contain: Sino-tech Fiber China Precision Tech Fujian Plastics Sihuan China Hongcheng Cacola C&G Karin Valutronics Transactions made since last update:Bought and Sold: Man Wah, SunshineSold: Hongwei, the Two HK stocksPartial Sold: China PrecisionBought: Sino-Tech Fiber, Sihuan, China Hongcheng, C&G,

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-75262713733811806252008-02-23T04:39:00.000-08:002008-02-23T05:43:16.400-08:00

Your Money and Your Brain, by Jason Zweig, is one of the latest book on behavioural finance (or neuroeconomics).Basically, what differentiates this book from other books is that it include brain scans of the author's brain as the author is subjected to various behavioural experiments. And, as each chapter concentrates on a certain behavioural weakness, each chapter also contains tips to combat

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-77259150498936386222008-02-22T05:09:00.000-08:002008-02-22T05:35:04.256-08:00

In an earlier post, I have highlighted downward volatility exist, even in value investing.Over the past two years from 2006-2007, I have tried to value my portfolio on a weekly basis based on unit value method.Based on the 104 weeks (or datapoints) from 2006-2007, my portfolio returns has a standard deviation of 5.2%. More meaningfully, if I have 0% returns, my weekly returns will range from -

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-58954260704921329202008-01-15T07:11:00.000-08:002008-02-22T05:08:52.913-08:00

Looking at the STI over the past few trading days, it certainly seems to be a perfect storm with YTD losses of around 8%.As Buffett has said that "you paid dearly for a cheery concensus", the present gloomy outlook makes me feel intrigued or even slightly excited. It is always wonderful to be able to bargain hunt, waiting for prices to drop lower (at a higher probability than usual). Beats

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-24961343535653117732008-01-11T20:02:00.000-08:002008-02-22T05:08:29.723-08:00

Invest like a Fox, Not like a Hedgehog, by Robert C. Carlson, tries to convince its readers that one should be like a fox (multi-facet, multi-perspective) and not like a hedgehog (sole perspective) in investing.Personally, I feel that this book is pitched for those people who either understand finance theory or have read Peter Berstein's books (Capital Ideas and Capital Ideas Evolving). Even with

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-87333435206553592672007-12-21T05:23:00.000-08:002007-12-21T05:40:02.754-08:00

As the year closes in a week time, this post will provide a final update to my portfolio. My current holdings are:CacolaChina PrecisionFujian PlasticHongweiValutronicsTwo HK stocksTransactions made since last update:Sold: HengxinPartial Sold: China Precision, Hongwei, one of the HK stocksAdded: ValutronicsNewly added: CacolaThe selling was done partially to fund the purchases and partially to

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-18744215220946663902007-12-07T17:24:00.000-08:002007-12-07T18:09:15.696-08:00

"The Panic of 1907", by Bruner and Carr, depicts the monetary panic in USA during 1907, where lack of monetary liquidity, trusts and bank runs come after one another. Due to the lack of liquidity, the stock market has also crashed severely during this period. The liquidity shortage was so severe that the brokerages have to borrow from Mr JP Morgan and the banks such that the brokerages can pay

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-35415968472729151912007-12-01T02:48:00.000-08:002007-12-07T17:24:45.232-08:00

This is a review on the book "Super Crunchers" by Ian Ayres. "Super Crunches" is available in NLB at 519.5 AYRSuper Chrunchers describes how regression and randomization has been applied in reality. For people who are studying or have studied statistics or econometrics, the book will show you how these statistical stuff are applied in reality. Overall, I find that this is a fascinating book.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-39758785332968591912007-11-25T06:48:00.000-08:002007-12-07T17:24:29.443-08:00

Recently, as my portfolio bleeds day by day, I am reminded of, besides Graham's sayings, the observation that downward volatility exist in value investing.In my opinion, value investing should minimize the risk of total capital losses in the long run. Unless unexpected and very adverse events occur. However, value investing may not imply low volatility in portfolio value in the short run.A simple

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-44153060292446615272007-11-19T05:28:00.000-08:002007-11-19T05:29:43.867-08:00

I have done quite a bit of trading over the past weeks due to the quarterly annoucement of results:Pared down my position in Hongwei to raise cash to buy others.Bought and sold Shanghai Turbo, to raise cash to buy others and also due to its disappointing 3Q results. Originally bought as a turnaround play, but its 3Q results shows that the turnaround is not that certain.Bought Hengxin at a higher

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-85681685049426682132007-11-11T07:37:00.000-08:002007-11-11T07:52:53.473-08:00

I am penning my thoughts here, in case I would want to refer to them a months later. This would prevent me from recalling the wrong thoughts.First, the market is getting more dual-tracked. While I guess that both the blue chips and the small stocks would dive in coming week (or weeks), I can see some value in the small stocks. So much so that I am currently fully invested in the market. I have

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-67997038401789092832007-11-11T07:19:00.000-08:002007-11-11T07:37:29.564-08:00

I have recently read the book Pop! : why bubbles are great for the economy, by Daniel Gross. The book can be borrowed from NLB (332.6 GRO). Overall, the book is short and interesting as it presents the positive aspect of bubbles, instead of the negative sides (ie the losses sufferred by investors etc).Some learning points are:1) Economic bubbles are good in the sense that they provide positive

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-9526818302616849122007-11-03T09:20:00.000-07:002007-11-03T09:40:14.273-07:00

The Interative Investor Blog (IIB) has discussed a controversial article by Mark Sellers.Mark Sellers is a hedge fund manager (using value investing) and writer (he contributes for FT). Mr Seller has just released an article highlighting the seven traits for a successful value investors (ie investors like Warren Buffett, Bill Miller who can compound at 20-25% over their careers.)Mr Seller penned

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-20346134909955208762007-10-26T07:26:00.000-07:002007-10-26T07:33:10.151-07:00

Well, I guess I may have done it again. I may have succumbed to the falling market and my over-cautious mood last week.I have sold C&G, Techcomp, Tuan Sing and UE at low prices and even loss-making prices. On hindsight, my portfolio may have performed better if I have not sold them.On hindsight, I do not even have to sell most of them in the first place if my margin of safety is larger. Since I

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-62167789179518679552007-10-14T00:19:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:40:15.932-07:00

My portfolio:C&GChina PrecisionFujian PlasticsTechcompUnited EngineersHongweiTuan Sing1 HK Stock1 Hk StockOver the past few weeks, I have been paring the Techcomp stake since Techcomp has announced a placement of shares. The Techcomp proceeds are used to purchase United Engineers, Tuan Sing and 1 HK stock.The purchase of United Engineers is mainly due to a NRA research report (seen in SGX website

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-73424470418135664862007-10-13T23:45:00.001-07:002007-10-14T00:03:32.754-07:00

How can we measure portfolio performance? Do you know that the returns that are seen in the blogs or newspaper may be imprecise?Recently, Interative Investor Blog (IIB)has two posts that cover them. I find them quite interesting and relevant. The posts:http://blog.iii.co.uk/2007/10/08/249/http://blog.iii.co.uk/2007/10/12/returnagain/Prior to reading the posts, I use unit value method and monthly

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-86943942458391505012007-10-06T01:04:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:03:53.662-07:00

This post is a review on 'The Markets And The Media' by Thomas Schuster. It can be borrowed from NLB (at 332.63222).The book has three chapters, a afterword and tons of references since the three chapters are drawn from many sources: academic papers, books and articles etc.Basically, if you are interested in how the media may influence the market, you may want to read the book. And perhaps if you

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-6911469507260181322007-09-29T01:50:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:04:32.087-07:00

My past posts in June and July suggest that I am having a separate view of my investments and of the general market. In late June, I have a dim view of the market but a optimistic view of my own holdings. Hence, I have been too over-confident about my stocks and suffer from the disparity between intellect (on the general market) and emotions (on my own holdings).This few days, I have been feeling

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-18879002836511908842007-09-16T08:53:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:04:50.946-07:00

My portfolio currently are:HongweiTechcompChina PrecisionChina Print & DyeC&O IndustrialA HK stockCurrently, my portfolio is around 10% below its July peak. I did not have any trades except adding to the HK stock for the past week.In the subprice downturn, I have added to or re-initiate (for Techcomp) all my positions. Perhaps, I do feel a tinge of regret that I did not buy Metro at 0.85-0.89,

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-73959991114275871882007-09-16T08:14:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:05:07.000-07:00

This post is a review on Trade with Passion and Purpose by Mark Whistler. The book is recently published in 2007. Mark Whistler, as he mentioned in the book, is a staitisical arbitrage trader.Basically, the book belongs to trader psychology literature. However, it brings about a slightly different dimension when compared to other trader psychology's psychology book as its chapters are arranged by

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-79769105087669206862007-09-08T03:02:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:05:30.454-07:00

This post is a review on SuperMoney by Adam Smith. The book is first published in 1972 and re-introduced in 2006. The NLB does not seem to have the book.The book is a description of financial markets in the period roughly around 1965-1975. Supermoney is interesting to me in a few aspects.1) Supermoney has a chapter on Benjamin Graham and Warren Buffett, even before Warren Buffett becomes famous.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-41583883225777228412007-09-02T07:28:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:06:41.987-07:00

This post is a review on A Demon Of Our Own Design: Markets, Hedge Funds, And The Perils Of Financial Innovation' by Richard Bookstaber. Website: http://rick.bookstaber.com/I have bought this book during the recent subprime Credit Debt Obligations (CDOs) meltdown, so as to better understand how the subprime leads to market meltdown. Essentially, from what I understand from the book, the recent

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-3894206039894205402007-08-24T05:55:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:07:00.583-07:00

I did not have much activity this week given that I have expended most of my funds. What I have done is to add a bit more to one of my position and to wait for a lower price in China Precision.In the last post, I have expressed that Hongwei is my best pick now. Let me explain why.First, it has low price to conservative valuation. Assuming no growth, a discount rate of 10%, lifteime annual profits

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-81808352116127513092007-08-17T06:02:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:07:19.014-07:00

I conceded defeat. I have underestimated the extent of selling panic, so much so that I keep buying and buying. Yes, I have somehow reached my target of being more than 100% invested. Probably in the weeks to come, I will put my tiny bit of savings year-to-date into this lowly valued market.It is interesting to note that my portfolio has fallen around 33% from its highest point in mid-Jul. And

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-73357839130473249092007-08-09T06:48:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:12:17.644-07:00

I have discovered that I have made a blunder in my valuation of Hongwei and Contel. That is, I did not take into account of their newly issued shares. Newly issued shares would lower eps and lead to lower valuation. The blunder is due to not reading or taking into account of every announcement carefully.Given that I prefer less uncertainty, I may feel that the growth achieved from the equity

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-25619277416079134812007-08-01T04:53:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:07:52.974-07:00

This is a great time to buy small caps. To buy when people are selling without any view with respect to the fundamentals. This is a high probability for long term gains but with high uncertainty and high probability for short term losses.Despite seeing some pessimism around the forums, I am feeling quite optimistic or happy. I guess this is because my opportunities for bargain hunting may

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-77157971962139653882007-07-30T02:23:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:08:22.557-07:00

This post is a review on 'Don't Believe Everything You Think: The Six Mistakes We Made in Thinking' by Thomas Kida. It can be borrowed from NLB (at 153.42 KID).As explained in the title, the book highlights six thinking mistakes:1) We prefer statistics to story.2) We seek to confirm3) We rarely appreciate the role of change and coincidence in life4) We can misperceive our world5) We oversimplify6

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-37518521523614874272007-07-29T07:09:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:11:42.236-07:00

Last week, I have quite a number of trades. Besides buying Hongwei and one other stock before the selldown, I have also disposed two other positions on Friday so as to raise cash.I have sold my positions in China Precision, C&G Industrial and SP Chemical. Even though China Precision and C&G Industrial are considered to be still undervalued by me, the degree of undervaluation is lower compared to

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-91330985424125669152007-07-23T07:13:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:09:22.482-07:00

Buffett has mentioned that an investor should be animated by greed but not be controlled by it. Van Tharp, in Schwager's Market Wizards, said that movitation in making money is not an important trait in expert traders. Martin Pring, in Investment Psychology Explained, noted that great investors and traders invests/trade because they love the investing/trading, and not because of the money.What is

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com4tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-82499937408227246972007-07-22T06:27:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:10:29.452-07:00

At present, I am re-reading some chapters of The Black Swan (TBS) by Nassim Taleb. In my first reading of TBS, I find it more philosophical than Taleb's last book 'Fooled by Randomness'. Which is why I did not dare to give a review. I do not want to review something I do not fathom.I find TBS more provocative than other books. TBS may, at some point, trigger some thoughts of mine which will link

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-59943681675866490832007-07-19T06:02:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:10:09.603-07:00

How can one acheive competency in investing?1) Read2) Think3) Practice4) Repeat 1), 2) and 3) every week, every month, every quarter and every yearThe above four steps, in my personal view, are the basic steps to acheive competence. This is also what I have been doing for the past few years to improve my investing skills.While it is amazing how much I can learn by doing the four steps, I am

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-63150091713380398602007-07-18T06:08:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:10:51.998-07:00

The government has given us a black swan today. The markets falls cascadingly when the development charges increase from 50% to 70%. And the most badly hit was the Sesdaq.It's a pity that there is no put warrants on Sesdaq, else I may have bought some yesterday. I was looking at STI warrants yesterday, but I did not buy.Euphoria turns to pessimism. Contel drop back to my purchase price. I do hope

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-67308985098104657032007-07-17T05:58:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:12:48.436-07:00

Today os a day where most stocks went up a lot. Today is the day where Sesdaq hits 300, giving a year-to-date return of 111.5%!Today is perhaps a lucky day for me too where I just bought Contel at an average 0.242 and it has hit 0.275 in two days. My last purchase was at 0.285 today. Contel is a stock that I have missed out. I should have bought it earlier. It was an ommission

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-27158135574314399922007-07-08T00:07:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:13:12.910-07:00

I shall post some of my recent trades here. However, first I will state a regret or maybe an error of mine.Recently Shanghai Asia has rose to near $0.30. As I have posted sometime ago that I have sold Shanghai Asia and thus I have missed the run from low $0.2x to near $0.30. This is my error in not being able to be more patient.My impatience or psychological weakness may have shone again as I

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com1tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-31847050043291615452007-06-25T05:28:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:13:36.930-07:00

I can't resist myself. I can't resist shouting that the Singapore small caps market is dangerous now. It has risen 60+% last year and now, it has risen 82% year-to-date.Currently many small caps stocks are moving upwards, especially those that have some properties element. Also, small caps with funny fundamentals are also starting to move. I think the small cap market is showing quite an

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-54946495660494502522007-06-22T19:57:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:14:02.915-07:00

I have just finished reading the book “Happiness: Lessons from a New Science” by Richard Layard. This book has a few controversial points, which people may find them disagreeable. However, I shall start with the more agreeable points first. Before I start, I shall state that this content in this book is lighter than most non-fiction books and it is not a bad read. The book can be found in NLB

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-33535913536036401722007-06-21T05:55:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:14:22.880-07:00

Have just read this informative interview of Oak Value Fund Managers at Motley Fool.http://www.fool.com/investing/value/2007/06/20/oak-value-interview-meet-the-managers.aspxHere are some excerpts. Happy reading.>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>But I will tell you, one of the things we have wrestled with often is when you find a good company,if you find a great company -- and in many ways

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-51021463128451015582007-06-15T20:56:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:14:38.941-07:00

This post will present a short review on a book ”Shortchanged” by Howard Karger. Next, a personal niggling thought on the stock market is posted.”Shortchanged” is a book depicting the financial life and debt in the fringe economy in America. It tries to show how financial companies (e.g. pawnshops, credit card, cash cashiers) do business with the low-income as well as debt-ridden consumer (which

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-8585385120917973272007-06-09T04:09:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:14:51.596-07:00

I have recently read the book “The Difference” by Scott Page. It is a book on how diversity can create better groups, firms, schools and societies. Similar to previous post, I would recommend you to buy the book and read it. I am not sure if the local bookstores have it as I got mine from Amazon.comI shall list the learning points I gathered from the book below. However, these points may not be

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-75046926236065567002007-06-03T06:50:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:15:15.433-07:00

The following are my notes (or what I have learnt) from the book, ‘An Engine, Not a Camera'. It is written by a sociologist. I would recommend those who are interested in financial theories and its effects on the market to read it. My notes may not be self-explanatory if one lacks the context behind the book.The notes are:1) Financial theories may be performacity or counter-performacity.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-68244405752216895812007-05-26T23:27:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:15:50.284-07:00

I have been selling and buying over the past week. Out goes my position in SP Chem, and in comes a HK stock, additional positions in Global Test and China Precision, and a new stake Shanghai Turbo.SP Chem was sold mainly to finance my purchases. Maybe I may buy it back again if it falls to $1. Earlier on, I have also sold my largest holding, C&O Pharm as it seems to have recovered fully from the

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-89362020778249041082007-05-19T22:52:00.001-07:002007-10-14T00:16:23.152-07:00

“You can get away with more than you deserve in life by being slightly more rational.”-- Charlie MungerI am back to urban lifestyle after a week of national reservist. Back to reading and blogging. First, I shall blog on looking for blind spotsOne can be more rational by knowing that blind spots (or more technically, unknown unknowns or known unknowns) always exist. And one should try to look for

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-21586113411716134302007-05-05T03:51:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:16:48.055-07:00

My ordered books from Amazon have arrived two weeks ago. Currently, I am spending my time reading on “The Three Questions that count” by Kenneth Fisher and “The Black Swan” by Nassim Taleb.“The Three Questions that count”, as described by Fisher, are three questions that can be used to answer one question.”What is it, that you know and others do not know, which gives you the advantage over others

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-8982940567001893772007-04-29T08:38:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:17:01.940-07:00

I guess I have nothing to post for this weekend. I see that people are posting their portfolio in channelnewasia. Maybe I will do the same here. My portfolio is as followed:C&OChina PreciSP ChemTechcompShanghai AsiaChina PrintingJardine StrategicGlobal TestIn value terms, it is just a small and poor portfolio. That's all, it is a short post this weekend.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-6317872664308642232007-04-21T10:48:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:17:21.638-07:00

I have bought into Jardine Strategic (JSH) this week. In my opinion, I think that JSH is undervalued as it trades at around 70% of its end 2006 market net asset value (MNav). I define MNav at valuing the company’s net asset at market value. This opinion has been addressed in my previous post.In this post, I will attempt to illustrate another opinion. That is, I think JSH is more undervalued than

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-6402093031123413762007-04-16T05:12:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:17:38.030-07:00

Looking on page 5 of its 2006 Annual Report, Jardine Startegic (JSH) at US$13.40 may be trading at 70% of its net asset value (NAV) of US$19.38, which is calculated based on market price of its holdings and excluding 455 million shares held by Jardine Matheson (JMH).JSH excludes JMH's 455m shares due to cross holdings. JMH owns 80% of JSH and JSH owns 53% of JMH. JSH has a total of 1072m shares.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-89556732880765156532007-04-13T23:28:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:17:56.416-07:00

I have mentioned that investing (or more precisely, DIY investing) is a painful process to me. I shall elaborate on why investing is painful in this post. However, I shall start with what I enjoy about investing.I do enjoy certain aspect of investing. I enjoy the ideas generation and the merging of ideas in investing. For example, you will encounter the idea of expected value in statistics.

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-84694780969178729362007-04-05T21:26:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:18:12.665-07:00

The market has recovered and soared since the March correction. Perhaps it is a good time for me to look at the positions I have disposed or added during the March correction.During the late February and early March, I have disposed two positions, CG Tech at around 0.71 and Sunray at around 0.22. CG Tech is quite profitable to me as I have last bought it at late 2006. Sunray is a loss for me as

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-57462676217841983602007-03-30T20:39:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:18:26.065-07:00

If investors has certain biasness to over-react to certain situations like a single bad quarter, investors may also have some biasness to under-react to other situations. And recently, I discover my own biasness to under-react to a property play as I bought smaller stake in that property stock than I would buy if it is some other stock.I do not normally buy property stocks due to my lack of

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-73323058199268123082007-03-24T22:47:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:18:41.100-07:00

As this week passed, many people judged that the market correction is finally over. The STI has recovered to 3205 as at Friday 22 Mar 2007.I am, of course like many investors, glad that the market has recovered. In this episode, I have hopefully learnt to withstand market volatility better and not to panic when disaster strikes again.And as I have said before, it is quite fortunate that I

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-37454312679437882132007-03-17T21:45:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:18:54.439-07:00

On a certain day during last week, I have purchased a put warrant on STI when STI drops around 80 points. The original intention of the purchase is to hedge my portfolio. At the end of that day, I feel like a genius as my put warrants show a significant profit.And in the next day, I was made to feel like a fool when I disposed my put warrants at a significant loss. As the US markets had recovered

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-5425047365164028005.post-85255888258540958732007-03-12T06:59:00.000-07:002007-10-14T00:19:09.653-07:00

After a week, the market seems to have recovered with the STI at 3182. On hindsight, I may have made silly decisions to liquidate around 50% of my portfolio into cash. If I have not sold during the crash, probably my current portfolio would look better when the market recover.At the end of last week, I have taken steps to re-build my portfolio by buying into the stocks I am still holding and a

ThinkNotLefthttp://www.blogger.com/profile/12923865962137056109noreply@blogger.com0