China Policy U-Turn

On 24 Sept 2024, China announced monetary stimulus which some described as mini-bazooka. 

Source: https://www.thinkchina.sg/economy/can-chinas-latest-stimulus-package-save-its-economy

Since then, China government is holding more press conferences. One was by NDRC which was disappointing. The other was held by China Ministry of Finance on 12 Oct 2024, which noted 

- more borrowings from China Govt to resolve the local govt debt 

- money raised from special bonds will be used to buy unsold homes and turn them into subsidised housing.

No numbers or new measures were announced, as new measures may need approval from their meetings in Oct later. 

More details: https://x.com/Sino_Market/status/1844960349130547641

Today (14 Oct 2024), there is another govt press conferenence on increasing support for companies. (See https://x.com/liqian_ren/status/1845647863188984221 )

From the above, there seems to be a U-turn in China policy. 

In 2021, there were the 3-red lines for property developers and tech  tech / education / gaming crackdown. 

Now there are monetary stimulus, more govt borrowings and hopefully, some fiscal stimulus in future. China is realising that its economy needs help and its people need more confidence in the economy. 

In medium term, I am hopeful of more support measures from China Govt, and China CPI should rise above 1% level. 

I am also hopeful that China/HK markets may have bottomed. There will be some volatility but we are unlikely to see lower lows. 

Rant: Forgotten

HSI rose 24.5% in past 2 weeks. 

China Aviation Oil (CAO) trades at 7x PE and benefits from China outbound travel. It rose only 7% in past 2 weeks! Why is this so? Because CAO is listed in SGX. 

TravelSky is listed in HK and it rose 33% in last 2 weeks. 

Singapore is a forgotten market. Especially for non-reit, non large cap stocks. 

Some purchases and sold options

Sold Call Option on Futu (call price $120, 20 Dec 2024) 

I sold call options on Futu. The quantity is 50% of my position in Futu. On Thursday, Futu reached $122. 

At $120, Futu is > 30x PE (TTM). Looks like my selling of called options have limited my gains for now. 

Bought ICBC and CCB

I watched Master Leong Youtube videos and had followed him in some buying CCB and ICBC this week. Did not buy Bank of China, as its share price ran up. 

The purchased stakes are not large, as earnings growth of China Banks is limited. 

Probably, it is a pychological purchase i.e. to relieve my FOMO on this China/HK bull run. 

Bought Conant Optical (2276)

Increased my position in Conant, as it is going to supply lenses for a MNC consumer electronic company and it is developing lenses for VR products. 

Its share price did not run up in this China/HK bull market.

Conant produces spectable lenses and have substantial sales that are exports. Its sales and profit rose in 1H 2024, partly due to appreciation of USD against RMB. Now, as RMB revalues, its profit may be affected.

Nonetheless, with ROE of 28% and stable growth rate for past few years, the current PE of 12.5x is not expensive. 

Thoughts

HK market is still rising this week (HSI up 11.2%), while China shares listed in US also rosed too. China Golden Week holidays ends next Monday. I expect inflows of funds from China into equities next week. 

If there is no further stimulus from China, the bull run may hit a wall near end of next week or in the week after. 

I will not be buying further into China / HK equities, as its weightage in my portfolio has risen to a rather high level. In the meantime, I am likely to let my positions run in the bear market.