Many roads lead to Rome. I don't believe in "Never lose money".
I don't do much downside assessment, I don't aim for minimum losses. Losses to me is ok.
For me:
If the probable profit is much higher than probable loss, I buy. Else I don't buy.
If probable loss is higher than probable profit, I sell.
Wednesday, August 5, 2015
An interesting stock
Valuetronics is $0.385 today, with EPS of 7c and PE of 5.5.
Its gone ex-div recently. Dividend was 3.5c. Its cash after excluding div paid out is around $0.20.
PE ex cash will be at 2.7.
To me, Valuetronics is more interesting than oil-related counters such as Keppel, Sembcorp, Penguin which are trading at higher PE.
And of course, I bought some today.
Its gone ex-div recently. Dividend was 3.5c. Its cash after excluding div paid out is around $0.20.
PE ex cash will be at 2.7.
To me, Valuetronics is more interesting than oil-related counters such as Keppel, Sembcorp, Penguin which are trading at higher PE.
And of course, I bought some today.
Sunday, August 2, 2015
Do not fight the Trend
I used to think that I can invest in turnarounds. That is, buy stocks that are beaten down and wait for the eventual recovery.
Recently, I think otherwise.
I find that it is quite difficult for companies to turnaround, especially in a down cycle. And I do not know when the down cycle ceases or when the down cycle will turn into an up cycle.
For example, oil related stocks. I bought Sembcorp and Pacific Radiance in end 2014 and early this year, thinking that oil price should recover in 3Q-4Q 2015.
I subsequently sold Pacific Radiance in late Feb 2015, after reading analyst reports that the down cycle will last quite some time. This is because even if oil price recover to $60-$80 in end 2015, the oil major will still tighten their budget and lower their expenditure. If most oil major lower expenditure, the pie for oil supporting companies will shrink, lowering both revenues and profit.
I did not sold Sembcorp then, thinking that its other non-oil businesses should cushion the impact of falling oil price. I was wrong. Its non-oil businesses did not help to cushion the impact of falling oil price in its 1Q 2015 earnings. I sold Sembcorp in May 2015.
Pacific Radiance was $0.745 in late Feb 2015. Now it is $0.405
Sembcorp was $4.35 in May 2015. Now it is $3.57.
I learnt that I should not fight the trend.
It is probably better for me to buy when the down trend turns up. By then, the stock price may have recovered to a certain extent.
I will not catch the bottom, but I also will not buy too early.
Recently, I think otherwise.
I find that it is quite difficult for companies to turnaround, especially in a down cycle. And I do not know when the down cycle ceases or when the down cycle will turn into an up cycle.
For example, oil related stocks. I bought Sembcorp and Pacific Radiance in end 2014 and early this year, thinking that oil price should recover in 3Q-4Q 2015.
I subsequently sold Pacific Radiance in late Feb 2015, after reading analyst reports that the down cycle will last quite some time. This is because even if oil price recover to $60-$80 in end 2015, the oil major will still tighten their budget and lower their expenditure. If most oil major lower expenditure, the pie for oil supporting companies will shrink, lowering both revenues and profit.
I did not sold Sembcorp then, thinking that its other non-oil businesses should cushion the impact of falling oil price. I was wrong. Its non-oil businesses did not help to cushion the impact of falling oil price in its 1Q 2015 earnings. I sold Sembcorp in May 2015.
Pacific Radiance was $0.745 in late Feb 2015. Now it is $0.405
Sembcorp was $4.35 in May 2015. Now it is $3.57.
I learnt that I should not fight the trend.
It is probably better for me to buy when the down trend turns up. By then, the stock price may have recovered to a certain extent.
I will not catch the bottom, but I also will not buy too early.
Tuesday, June 9, 2015
JSH
The STI has been down for a few days.
Saw Jardine Strategic (JSH) dropped to $31. JSH, with earnings per share of $3, will be quite interesting if it drops to $30 -- at 10 times PER.
Saw Jardine Strategic (JSH) dropped to $31. JSH, with earnings per share of $3, will be quite interesting if it drops to $30 -- at 10 times PER.
Friday, May 2, 2014
Book Notes: The Chaos Imperative
The Chaos Imperative by Ori Brafman
How Organised Chaos can lead to serendipity or unexpected positive results.
On the Five Rules of Chaos:
How Organised Chaos can lead to serendipity or unexpected positive results.
On the Five Rules of Chaos:
1) Avoid Lure of Data Measurements:
To make the right decisions, we need not just the data but the narrative to explain the situation. But Narrative takes time; Data does not. If facts cannot be presented as numerical data, they get ignored and lead to dire consequences.
2) It's Organised Chaos
The chaos need structure to work but the structure also need chaos to handle uncertainty.
We need leaders who can tolerate uncertainty and imprecision. But we also need leaders who can maintain stability around the chaos.
3) Make White Space Productive
- White space is useful when one already spend a lot of energy on a project and has a clear goal in mind. A team working against a deadline with no time to spare can benefit a lot from white space.
- Ask how much white space is needed. Ask people who work with you when they feel like they need time to think/brainstorm.
- Exercise improve productivity
- Create mini white space. Ask a question, then ask everyone to spend one minute or twenty seconds to think about the ideas in silence.
4) Reach out to Unusual Suspect
Whenever we talk about 'they' -- someone from a different department --, it means we're talking about someone who needs to be involved in the conversation. After stopping the conversation, Lisa will contact the would-be suspect and invite him/her to the next meeting or even take the entire group over to the person's office.
5) Organise Serendipity
Set the conditions to encourage people to have spontaneous interactions.
The goal in encouraging serendipity is to create openness, encourage the flow of new ideas, and allow people to bump into one another.
Saturday, August 20, 2011
Two Sales
Recently, I sold my full positions in Qingmei and Techcomp.
Qingmei is sold, because reports on buzhida and Qingmei makes me uncomfortable.
Techcomp is sold, because its profits may be dented by the HK listing fees and Europe fiscal woes.
The stock sales incidentally help me to build up a sizeable cash pile, which enables me to buy some stocks (e.g. Eratat) last week.
Given the present market uncertainty, I will buy bit by bit as the prices fall further.
The Psy-Fi Blog has an interesting piece on buying during panics: "investing in falling markets is mentally extremely difficult and requires diligent preparation... the tendency to wait for a better opportunity, which can lead to missing the chance altogether... the time to buy is never right: you don’t buy on the way down, because stocks will be cheaper tomorrow, and you don’t buy on the way up, because you’ve anchored on the lower price."
Friday, July 1, 2011
Portfolio as at end-June 2011
My portfolio as at 1 July consists of the following stocks: AIMSAMPREIT, Eratat, Heeton, Hongwei, Leader Environment, Qingmei, Sabana and Techcomp
Sold: China Taisan
China Taisan is sold due to its poor Q1 results.
Bought: Sabana Reit
Intiate a stake in Sabana as it provides around 9.5% dividend yield.
Added: Qingmei, Leader Environment, Heeton and Eratat,
Leader is added after its good Q1 results. Qingmei is added a few times at various price points as its price slides. Eratat is added twice recently when its price goes below $0.18. Both Eratat and Qingmei are added because the lowered prices offer better value to me.
I have re-purchased a portion of the Heeton shares that I have sold earlier, as I think that the government measures may not have that large impact on high-end property prices. In view of possible new government measures, I have not bought more property stocks. As the CEO has personally bought more Heeton shares recently, hopefully this counter will turn out well.
Portfolio composition:
Qingmei and Eratat are my largest shareholdings.
My year-to-date returns has worsen to -28.4%. Nonetheless, I can live with the loss, as I know that I will have large drawdowns at times. The occassionally large drawdawns are because I run a concentrated portfolio.
Having a concentrated portfolio implies that I am aiming for more returns at the expense of higher risk. This high risk/hopefully higher rewards approach is my personal preference.
Sold: China Taisan
China Taisan is sold due to its poor Q1 results.
Bought: Sabana Reit
Intiate a stake in Sabana as it provides around 9.5% dividend yield.
Added: Qingmei, Leader Environment, Heeton and Eratat,
Leader is added after its good Q1 results. Qingmei is added a few times at various price points as its price slides. Eratat is added twice recently when its price goes below $0.18. Both Eratat and Qingmei are added because the lowered prices offer better value to me.
I have re-purchased a portion of the Heeton shares that I have sold earlier, as I think that the government measures may not have that large impact on high-end property prices. In view of possible new government measures, I have not bought more property stocks. As the CEO has personally bought more Heeton shares recently, hopefully this counter will turn out well.
Portfolio composition:
Qingmei and Eratat are my largest shareholdings.
My year-to-date returns has worsen to -28.4%. Nonetheless, I can live with the loss, as I know that I will have large drawdowns at times. The occassionally large drawdawns are because I run a concentrated portfolio.
Having a concentrated portfolio implies that I am aiming for more returns at the expense of higher risk. This high risk/hopefully higher rewards approach is my personal preference.
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