2023 Review I: Learnings from my Stock Portfolio

This post is about the stuff I learnt from my stock portfolio in 2023

1) When you own shares of good companies, they should not be sold easily.

I bought Meta around $120 in 2022. However, I sold them too early at around $250-$270. I should have kept the shares of such good business.

Similarly, I sold half my position in Booking at around $2,500. Again, I should have kept shares of such good businesses, especially when I knew that I probably will not buy them at current high prices.

2) Maintain buying standards, especially when market is rising. 

As HK stock market is rising in Dec 2022 and Jan 2023, I become too optimistic and lower my margin of safety in buying stocks. This led me to buy stocks like Pax Global at $7.50 and HRnet at $0.81. The prices of these stocks became lower later in 2023

3) Be more selective in risk-taking

I bought Keppel Pacific Oak US Trust at $0.36 in 1Q 2023. The trust is akin to a reit holding US offices. The share priced dropped further latter to as low as $0.19, before recoving to $0.34 now. 

I sold the shares at $0.315 (missing some upside), as I decide not to partake in the risk of US offices, especially when the US office saga may need years to resolve. 

The lesson is that I should be more selective in the risk I want to take, as every stock/business has risk, be it little or large. 

4) Going back to so-so business but with low valuations

It is hard to find good/great business at good valuations. Hence, I am going back to buying stocks with low valuations but so-so business (i.e low risk, ok reward), such as  

- Hongkong Land: Low P/B, so-so dividend yield (6+%), low leverage and solid asset but with low growth and China/HK properties that are poorly perceived.

- Jardine Matheson: At 0.4 P/B, so-so dividend yield (5.6%), low gearing (12-13%), a conglomerate with business/assets in mainly Southeast Asia and China/HK. 

- Cosco Shipping International: Trading below net cash and high dividend yield

5) It is during stock price declines that you find out your conviction

I sold out of BP, CSPC Pharma and DEC (oil company listed in LSE), as their prices decline and I find that I lacked conviction in these stocks. 

The other lessons is that I should look for stocks/businesses where I have more knowledge about.

6) I do not know the future. 

My predictions are trash. I thought that China/HK market will soar in 2023 while US market will drop or show no gains. This were wrong.

I thought that oil prices will be higher in 4Q 2023. These were wrong too.