2025 Review 1: Thoughts on 2025 and 2026

Lesson

1) I did not buy significantly during the Apr 2025 market decline. I was waiting for 20% decline but the market only decline 19%. For the next decline, I will start to buy significantly when market declines by 15%.

2) I bought Chagee earlier and broke my rule of not buying stock that are within 1 year of its listing. Subsequently, I sold Chagee at 35% loss. This teach me not to break my rules.

Diversification vs Concentration

3) I start to buy ETFs to diversify into other geographies such as Latin America and Emerging Markets. I am not familiar with markets outside Singapore and Hong Kong market. Hence, it is safer for me to buy into other markets via ETFs when I find their valuations good enough.

I also bought small positions in a few Singapore Reits as proxy diversification to real estate, as I do not own any property.

I also bought gold, silver and copper ETFs in 2Q 2025 for diversification in precious metals. However, I sold them in 4Q 2025, as their prices have run up and I am not sure if the price run will continue. On hindsight, I sold them too early, as their prices have continued to rise. 

4) I had re-think my view on portfolio concentration. In 2021, I wanted to be more concentrated and own great business. However, it is hard to find enough number of  stocks of great business to buy at reasonable price. In past few years, I manage to buy a few stocks that are good/great business. But most of the times, I find the stock price of good/great business too expensive for me, given my value investor mindset. 

Maybe my nature is not inclined towards concentrated portfolio. When I buy a stock, I will often ask 'What happens if I'm wrong?'. This prevents me from buying heavily into any one stock.

In addition, as I stop working, I become slightly more risk-averse. An Acadian post 'Concentrated portfolio managers: Courageously losing your money' noted the danger of concentration. As such, I decide to reduce the probability of bad outcome by being more diversified. 

Thoughts on 2026

5) Most world markets have a good run in 2025. They have become either reasonably valued or over-valued. While China/HK stocks seem reasonably valued, I have a positive view on China / HK stocks, as China's loose monetary policy, its $1 trillion trade surplus and expansionary fiscal policy will support the stock market.

6) From past experiences, when I had two good years, the third year will be down. I had two good years in 2024 and 2025. So I am cautious or slightly bearish on my 2026 stock returns. Similarly, I feel that 2026 STI returns may not be as good as 2025's, as STI has very good years in 2024 and 2025.   

7) I am not good at predictions. My above thoughts for 2026 may not materialise. 

Sima Yi

Sima Yi was a great military strategist in the late stage of the Three Kingdoms.  

I always find Sima Yi's philosophy useful for investors / traders.

Below is an interesting video on Sima Yi's philosophy (in Chinese though):

Cash Deployment Plan during Market Crash

This is Morgan Housel's plan for deploying $1,000 during market crash, noted in 2013 Motley Fool article. 

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/19/what-i-plan-to-do-when-the-market-crashes.aspx

Brian Feroldi has a video on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Af16HSn3aa4

Morgan Housel's allocation plan is pretty good. One can use it as base template and modify it to suit one's preference.  

Mid December Update

 Purchases

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $10.18.

Added, as its share price continued to fall. 

Kuaishou (1024.HK): Started a small position at $67.80. 

It's China short-video platform and has expanded overseas to Brazil. It has created AI tools to help content creators make better content and hence led to more viewership on its platform. It also uses AI for coding and handle customer service. Nonetheless, it has strong competitors in China like Douyin and Tencent video.  My buy price was around 16-17x PE. 

Chinney Kin Wing (1556.HK): Started a very small position at $0.345

It's a low PE stock. Its business is contruction in HK. Due to its low liquidity, I did not buy more. 

TIGR: Started a position at $9.24

It's a online brokerage with smaller geographical coverage compared to FUTU. I bought it because it is similar to FUTU (which I owned a position) and it trades at reasonably low ~11.2x LTM PE. Downside is that brokerage business may be cyclical i.e. its business may crater during bear markets. 

SEDY.L: Started at position at $12.975 pound

It's iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETF. Bought it for diversification (i.e. signficiant exposure to energy, materials and utilities in EM) and low valuation (based on P/E and P/B ratios in iShare ETF page). 

Sales

Intermestic 262A: Sold all at $2,000 yen, with a slight gain.

I sold because I was disappointed with the FY25 forecasted earnings and its odd acquisition in Oct 2025. On hindsight, I should have sold when the share price was around $3,000 yen

Bosideng: Sold all at $4.87, with around 28% gain.

Was disappointed with its 1H results showing flat growth. I expect some growth. 

361: Sold all at $6.05, with slight 4% gain over 3-4 months.

The China sports sector (e.g. Anta, 361) seems to enter a lower growth phrase given their 1H and 3Q 2025 sales. Decide to sell all to increase my cash position. 

Chagee: Sold all at $14.97, suffer a 35% loss

Sold all due to disappointment with its 3Q 2025 results. As I mentioned earlier, I should not break my rule (not buying stock within 1 year of IPO) and buy Chagee earlier. 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6.SI: Sold half at $3.5, with ~50% gain (incl dividends)

Decide to take some profit, as shipbuilding is a cyclical industry. Will look to sell the rest if the price rise further or when I need to raise more cash. 

Current Thoughts

The HK market has weakened recently. HSI has declined ~7.5% from its October high. Insofar, I had not added to my HK positions, as the prices of my HK stocks have not dropped enough to my buy price. If I am adding to my HK stocks, I may add cautiously, as I am adopting a more prudent stance as noted in my previous post. 

Thoughts on the US market

I am thinking that the US market has a significant probablity of a >10% decline in 2026.

I saw the first two charts at https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-the-case-for-a-year-end-melt-up

The charts showed that 2025 is a continuation of 2023-24 and eerily similar to1969, 1972, 1998-99 where a large correction occurred thereafter. 

Alpha Architect has a post on the current high valuations (based on CAPE ratio) in US market suggest negative real returns for the next 10 years. This suggest that the US market will go down sometime in future but we just don't know when.

When US market goes down, HK and SG markets may also go down to some extent. 

As such, I will adopt a more prudent stance and increase my cash level slightly moving forward. This will reduce my returns from equity but it will also reduce the losses from market correction if it happens. 

Nov 2025 Update

Purchases

Greggs (GRG.L): Started a position at $16-$17

It is a high street bakery in UK and is #1 for breakfast sales. Its share price had fell more than 40 this year due to high valuation and poor 2025 earnings. Its 2025 earnings are affected by inflation and UK govt policies (of higher national insurance). More details are in Motley Fool UK's article. I am betting that its will recover from its troubles in next 2-3 years. 

BYD (1211.HK): Further added to my position at $103. 

Added too early. If I have waited, I could have added at lower prices. 

Digital Core Reit (SGX: DCRU): Started a position at $0.49 USD

The reit holds data centres in US, Germany and Japan. Its dividend yield is ~7%. I bought it to increase my allocation to Reits and increase my diversification to a different asset (data centre in this case). 

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $11.20.

Based on its 1H 2025 results, its earnings seem to have recovered. At $11.20, the dividend yield (including special dividend) is 10%. In last 2 years, it had paid out 100% of its earnings, half in dividend and half in special dividends.

Stoneweg Europe Trust (SGX: SET): Started a position at $1.54. 

Bought it to increase my allocation to reits. At $1.54, it's dividend yield is above 8%. This reit owns offices and logistics/warehouses in Europe. 

Sales

HIDR ETF: Sold at 5% loss, after accounting for dividends.

I sold it to raise money to buy other stocks. I sold it too early. If I sell now, the sale will be at breakeven level. 

Best Mart (2360.HK): Sold 40% of my holdings at $2.14, earning around 30% profit

Sold to raise cash. Also decide to reduce my position in Best Mart. 

Glorious Sun (393.HK): Sold my whole position at $1.30-$1.32. Earn ~34% return.

Sold all, as I am not sure if it can maintain its dividend payout in future. 

ISLN ETF (USD): Sold half of my position at $47.2 at ~53% profit. 

This is an ETF on physical silver. Decide to take profit on half of my position, as silver prices had run quite high and I am not sure if high silver prices are sustainable. 

Current Thoughts

Recently, I had this thought that reits are closest to property investing with debt but without the hassle. How the reit perform will depend on its asset quality, its reit manager's competence and the interest rate environment. Anyway, the lower interest environment had led me to buy more reits recently. 

Currently, the US market seems to be correcting due to high valuations in AI-related stocks. I do not know if this correction will be fleeting or will last a while. I don't have much AI-related stocks in my portfolio. Nonetheless, when US market corrects, SG and HK markets will be affected too. So my stock portfolio will see some volatility ahead. 

Sep 2025 Update

Sales

Novodisk (NVO): Sold all a week later after buying, at slight loss 

The sale was due to afterthoughts on 1) more competitors in the space, 2) US govt trying to reduce the price of medicine and 3) my lack of knowledge in this space. 

Golden Throat (6896.HK): Sold all at $3.81; at 15% loss.

The sale was after a profit warning of >30% decline in earnings, which was unexpected. I decide to sell first.  

Ping An (2318.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at close to $56.

The sale was to raise cash for buying other stocks, and Ping An's 1H 2025 was not great. 

Purchases

361 Degree (1361.HK): Started a small position at $6. 

The company manufacture and sell footwear at affordable prices mainly to lower-tier cities in China. Its high-tier running shoes has some good reviews though. I bought a pair of its running shoes and found it very suitable for long walks (>10km). The downside is that it has some coporate governance issues in 2019 - 2021. In particular, it has issues in remitting cash out of China to repay its overseas loan in 2021. 

Infinity Dev (640.HK): Started a small position at $1.21

It manufactures and sell adhesives for footwear manufacturers. The purchase is bought as a dividend play. Dabao (a very good investor) has a substack post on this company. 

BYD (1211.HK): Started a position at ~$105

I view BYD as a growth play and a potential next Ford / Toyata, given its model of selling low-cost cars at scale. Downside is that EV industry is in volatile stage where the end winners are unknown. 

Greggs (GRG.L): Started a very small position at $15.72

Greggs operates quick service restuarants in UK, selling baked food. It out-ranked Mcdonald in morning sales. Its share price has fallen more than 50% due to lower profit arising from increased cost pressures. I believe that Greggs will eventually recover but the recovery may take time. Downside to me is that I don't live in UK and hence cannot form a good view on how good/bad Greggs' food / service is. 

Others

Chagee (CHA)

Its net income in 2Q 2025 was down 90% due to share-based compensation after a successful IPO. The large decline seems to be one-off. Also, its same store sales (esp in China) fell, as it did not discount its product and participate in the food delivery platform battle in China. Its share price has cratered after its 2Q 2025 results. I decide to hold the stock and wait for future earnings releases before assessing again on whether to add / sell the stock. Personally, I have ignored my rule of 'not buying stock that just IPO-ed within a year' when I bought Chagee. Perhaps this is a lesson for not sticking to my rule.

Current View

In recent weeks, I am less engaged in following the market, as I am more interested in doing other stuff. 

HK market has cooled down a bit from its recent high. The US Fed has cut interest rate by 25 basis points and there may be more cuts down the road. 

I have no idea of how the market will perform in future or what the interest rates will be in future. For now, I will add more to a few of existing positions if price drops and sell one or two existing positions to raise cash for the purchase (if any).