Jul 2025 Update

 Sales

Yuexiu Services (6626.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at $3.11. 

In Mar, I was disappointed with its results and sold half of stake. Now, I take the slight increase in share price and sold the rest.  

Purchases

Golden Throat (6896.HK): Started a position at $4.22 - $4.46. 

The company sells a well-known lozenge in China that smoothe the throat, accounting for 90% of sales. And it pays out all its earnings as dividends in last 2 years. While the high dividend payout may not continue in future, the high div payout shows that its earnings are real and its capital allocation is good for its investors.

Pico Far East (752.HK): Added to my existing position, pre its interim dividend, at $2.60

Was pleased with its 1H 2025 results. If it can grow at 7% annually and maintian its 50% dividend payout ratio, it is not expensive to buy at below 10x P/E. 

China Feihe (6186.HK): Bought at $4.7 and sold at $4.65 a day later.

The buy thesis is that its share price drops after profit warning. However, its long-term prospect should be ok. However, after further review, the trend of declining number of babies poses a long-term challenge to its prospects. Hence, I decide to get out. 

Bosideng (3998.HK): Added at $4.20.

Took the opportunity of unexpected slight drop in price to add a small position to my existing position. 

United Hampshire Reit (SGX: ODBU): Started a position at $0.47 USD

Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.64 P/B and around 8.5% yield. It owns US suburban mall space, which provide stable property income. The downside is that its dividend are in USD and thus there will be exchange rate volatility when converted to SGD. 

OUE Reit (SGX: TSOU): Started at $0.305 (pre its interim dividend)

Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.53 P/B and around 6.7% yield. It owns 2 hotels, a shopping centre and some prime offices in SIngapore. The pro is that all its property are Singapore which is a stable environment for Reits and SGD is strong relatively to other currencies. The con is that a few of its properties' lease expires at 2056 / 2066.  

Chagee (CHA): Started a position at $23.2 and $22.4

It trades at ~12x P/E and ROE is ~40%. GabGrowth (Substack) has a detailed analysis. The downside is that it only IPOs recently (i.e. history is short) and its prospect beyond China is unknown. 

Novodisk (NVO): Started a position at $48.5

It trades at below 15x P/E and has ROE > 70%. While it has some hurdles in its sales growth and US demanding it to lower the price of its drugs, the long-term prospects seem ok at current valuations. Kontra Investments (Substack) has an interesting take on its recent hurdles. 

Current View

I had bought 2 reits this month to shore up my allocation to Reits. My aim is to have 10% in real estate/reits in long run for diversification / defensiveness purpose. My current allocation is 4%. 

I am currently 62% in stocks (at one point in Apr, I was 50% in stocks after selling to take risk off the table due to Trump tariffs). As I don't intend to increase the allocation to stocks further, any purchase in future likely require a sale of some existing positions. 

HK market and SG market has been hot in July. I do not know where the market will go in future. 

I realised that my sale of Oiltek in Apr at $1.10 pre-split was stupid on hindsight. Oiltek share price had tripled since. This and other incidents told me that for growth stocks, I should not sell for valuation reasons. 

Jun 25 Update

Sales

Sketcher: Sold whole position at $62, as it has been agreed to be taken over at $63 by 3G Capital. My cost price was around $55-56; not much profit

KE Holdings: Whole position was disposed, as the earlier sold call options were exercised at $17. My cost price was $17; so I earned the call option price.

Purchases

HIDR ETF (GBP): Bought a small position at $47.7.

This is an ETF on Indonesia stocks. 

JD (9618.HK): Bought smallish positions at $138, $130, $125

Have put a Good-to-cancel buy order at $120. JD's trading at 8x PE. The recent price weakness is caused by its entry / subsidies into food delivery. JD founder had explained the rationale of its plans.

Intermestic (262A Japan): Added more at $1,800 yen

May have added early, as it is trading at $1,650 yen now. It's trading at ~11.5 P/E. I'm betting on its growth potential. 

LTAM ETF (GBP): Further increase position at $11.50

I started buying this ETF in Apr 2025.

Current View

We are in a boring phrase now, where there's not much up and down. Unless you own oil stocks. 

We may see more volatility in July, as Trump tarriffs may rise for countries failing to reach a deal with the US. Or Trump may extend the tariff negotiation timeline and we're back to 'boring' phrase. 

Apr 25 Update

Sales

Stella International: Sold all my position at $15.20 after Trump's tariffs. Cost price is $17.40

It is stupid of me to bought just before announcement of Trump's tariffs. 

Dream International: Sold all my position at $5.80-$5.95. 

Sold due to Trump's tariffs, as its factories are in Vietnam. 

Marco Polo Marine: Sold all at $0.044. Cost price is $0.053.

Sold due to desire to hold more cash and dispose of positions with less conviction in these uncertain times. 

Oiltek: Sold all my remaining stake at $1.10.

Sold due to desire to hold more cash in these uncertain times. It may be a mistake to sell it, as it is trading at $1.40. Nonetheless, I probably lack conviction and understanding in the stock.

CNOOC: Sold all my remaining stake at $16.32

Sold, as oil prices could be weak this year. OPEC may increase supply of crude oil and the possible US recession reduce demand for oil

Glorious Sun: Sold a minor portion at $1.16

Sold due to reducing the position size, as I want to have less exposure to China banks. Glorious Sun has stakes in ICBC. CCB and BOC.

Atour: Sold all at $23.75. Cost price is $25.

Took a minor loss. Sold due to delisting risk from US, as Atour is a China company and it is not dual-listed in HK.

Meituan: Sold majority of my stake at $129. Cost price is around $150.

Sold due to JD entering Meituan's market which may lead to increased competition and lowered profits for all players.

Ping An: Sold half of my position at $45.

Sold due to (1) poor 1Q 2025 results, (2) desire to reduce my position sizing in Ping An, (3) disappointment in Ping An's inability to turnaround its business. It's business had worsen since 2020-21 and (4) desire to hold more cash

Purchases

Sketcher: Bought a minor stake at $49.50. Also, earlier sold put options was exercised; purchase price is $58 after netting off option sale price.

I believe in Sketcher's positioning in shoes market. While it may take a hit in its US sales and profit in these 1-2 years, it should be able to recover.

Nameson: Increase stake slightly at $0.81

Bought too early. Should wait a few days before buying at lower price. 

Intermestic: Bought a tiny stake at 1,380 yen.

Should have bought more when share price dropped to 1,380 yen.

Best Mart: Increase stake slightly at $1.67

Its dividend yield is >10%. Its business are sheltered from Trump's tariffs, as it caters to HK and Macau markets only.

LTAM ETF (GBP): Bought a small stake at $10.65-$11.45

This is an ETF on Latin America. Latin America could be a beneficiary in this tariff war, as China increases purchases of agricultural goods from Brazil and production of shoes / textiles for US could shift to South America. In addition, Latin America equities are inexpensive. 

ISLN ETF (USD): Bought a small stake at $30.70

This is an ETF on physical silver. I decide to slowly increase exposure to metals such as silver and gold. The exposure will not be large. Such exposure will serve as hedge / insurance during uncertain times, as metals may have low correlation with equities and bonds. So this purchase is a start.  

Current View

Currently, S&P 500 rose back to its pre-Liberation Day value. I cannot understand the rising S&P 500, when the odds of US recession is high. The market seems certain that US will reach a deal with China soon to avert a recession in US. 

My read is that US-China deal will not happen anytime soon. China can bear the pain from tariffs war better than US. When US finds the pain from tariffs unbearable, 

- US can reduce its tariffs on China unilaterally, and China will follow suit and reduce its tariffs on US.

- Or US will try to reach a deal with China. Then the longer the deal takes, the more pain US will feel from the tariffs and the stronger the China position will be in the negotiation.  

Anyway, I can't predict what will happen. My equties allocation is around 50%. So if market worsen or improves, I will lose some or gain some. 

USD Depreciation and US Treasury Bond Yields Rising

 Last Thursday and Friday, US dollar (USD) has depreciated against major currencies such as Euro, Yen. On Friday, USD even depreciated against Sing dollar. Correspondingly, US Treasury bond (or govt bond) yields have been rising. 

More infomation can be seen in https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H3nRgZGBREs

In twitter, most people are asking 'Who is selling the US Treasury bonds?' I think this is the wrong question to ask.

Instead, the simpler question to ask is 'What is it implying?'. If when one's currency is depreciating and one's govt bond yields are rising, it implies that investors are losing confidence in the currency and would demand higher returns (yield) to hold the currency.

Why are investors losing confidence? The most recent example was the Liz Truss moment in 2022, where the new Liz Truss administration announced policies increasing UK government spending and fiscal deficit. This led to investors losing confidence in UK glits, pushing its yields higher and UK pound depreciated against other currencies. The situation stablised only after Liz Truss was pushed out and her policies halted. 

So with this example, probably the current USD depreciation and its rising bond yields could be due to investors perceiving higher US fiscal deficit in future. It could be a response to US $5 trillions tax cut plan (see https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c7vnnv6n29no), which would worsen US fiscal deficit in future. 

MSNBC had a recent video on US fiscal deficit: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wEj_9tNyvVQ

Also see: https://x.com/HayekAndKeynes/status/1911385708893208948

Two weeks into US Reciprocal Tariffs

Two weeks have passed since President Trump's announcement of reciprocal tariff on 3 Apr. And many things have changed since 3 Apr, due to Trump's subsequent announcements.

Currently, electronics goods, pc and smartphones are exempted from the reciprocal tariffs (a change from previous stance). The market may rally on this news on Monday. 

Trump's tariffs are like cha-cha dance; two steps forward, one step back; two steps forward, one step back. 

It's been very tiring to keep up with the tariffs news and its impact on my stock and non-stock holdings.  Given the great uncertainty in US tariffs, I decide to focus less on the tariff news and just wait for things to settle. 

The markets may bounce up and down. It may recover from there or fall further. It does not matter. 

I may miss out buying quality stocks at good prices. I may buy quality stocks when their prices fall to my buy point. It does not matter. 

I just stick to my buy plan; does not matter if my warchest is not deployed. At this moment, 50% of my assets are in equities. So I still benefit, if the market recovers. 

Besides buying quality stocks at good prices, I will change my focus to buying non-US stocks on business that focus on domestic demand. Such business will not be directly affected by the uncertainty of tariffs. 

Seperately, it seems that US treasuries and USD are no longer the 'safest' assets during market crisis, given its drop during Thursday and Friday. I will hold my spare cash in SGD (and not USD) in future, even though the interest rate for SGD is lower. 

Lastly, S&P PE is around 19x NTM PE currently. This is not cheap, relative to its 20-year history (see https://x.com/MikeZaccardi/status/1910819472291639692)

Current Market Crash

The current market crash reminds me of 2 songs:

This is what you came for (by Calvin Harris and Rihanna)

散了吧 It's over (by Terry Lin)

Now, I guess that I'm done selling almost all the positions I don't want to hold throught this crash. (Never, say never though. I am sell if I find myself short of cash or the holding turns out to be more affected by US tariffs than I thought.)

Moving forward, I am waiting for prices to drop further. I will start to buy the quality stocks in my watchlist, in tranches, as their prices dropped to my buy point.

If President Trump does not pivot on his tariffs, the market may be in the doldrums for quite some time. There are potential negative events such as:
- EU imposing tariffs on US

- US re-retaliating tariffs against China / EU

- US impose new tariffs on semicon, pharma, copper

- US entering recession 

- Fed not cutting rates due to high inflation (arising from tariffs)

- Unknown negative events (e.g. Who predicted AIG going under in early 2008?)

I will be very sparing in firing my bullets in this market downturn. 

Safest Asset during Great Depression

There is a very good book on the Great Depression in 1930s - 1940s. The book is 'The Great Depression: A Diary' by Benjamin Roth. 

The book is actually a diary of events during the Great Depression. The author was a lawyer. He 

had months with no income during Great Depression. 

From the book, what was the safest asset during Great Depression? 

It is the treasury bonds (i.e. government bonds). 

Other assets such as equities, corporate bonds, farmland, houses have lower prices. Cash in 

banks may face withdrawal issues during bank runs. 

Another interesting trend during Great Depression was that it become fashionable to save more 

and spend less. People compared with each other on how much they save.