Thursday, July 28, 2022

Started Buying

 Have dipped into my funds to started buying:

1) JPGL -- a multi-factor index fund listed in LSE. I am pondering between JPGL and IFSW (another multi-factor index fund). Decided on JPGL, as its max holding in a single stock is around 0.6% which means that it is more diversified. 

If you look at morningstar on the portfolio characteristics, JPGL scores higher on low-volatility factor, while IFSW scores higher on quality factor. Can't say which factor is better.

2) USSC -- a US value small cap fund listed in LSE. I bought LSE-listed ETF, as they may be domiciled in Ireland and hence I can save on US dividend withholding tax. 

Recent news noted that US small cap value seems to have higher ROE than US small cap growth. Given this, I think that US small cap value is cheap currently.

Sold:

1) Meta, at breakeven prices. Decide to let this go, as I don't really like the FB business

2) Essex Bio-tech. Wanted to sell and then use the proceeds to add on to my position in CNOOC. But CNOOC has run up. I will hold on to the cash then.

On T-bills, have bought

1) 1-year T-bill issued in Jul. It provides 3.1%, which is not a bad yield

Will also be buying the 6 mth T-bill this week. This will means that some of my funds are tied in T-bill till Jan/Feb next year. 

Given that SSB has been capping the amounts in recent months, it is easier to put funds into T-bills instead. 



Thursday, July 7, 2022

Half Essex Bio-Tech, thinking on 10 year bond

 I had halved my stake in Essex Bio-Tech today, as it releases a profit warning yesterday night. The decision was also due to possibility of it writing off some of its investment in a drug and my thinking that if I am to buy the stock, I will own half the stake I have.

I thought of buying 10 year Treasury bond, as US seems to be heading for recession and inflation seems to be slowing. However, I am not knowledgeable on bonds. I cannot tell how much I can lose in bonds nor how much I can gain on bonds. Thus I should pass.

I bought SG 6mths T-bill. The auction results is out and the cut-off yield is 2.66%. This is higher than last month's 2.3x%. Now the question comes if I should continue to buy more T-bill or I should hold the cash, so that I can buy stocks if market decline. 


Wednesday, July 6, 2022

Sold Rex International

Sold Rex International today at 0.255, as it falls below my stop-loss. It was a small position and I had put a mental stop-loss, as I bought it due to high oil prices but I am not very knowledgeable about the company.

In addition, Rex is much smaller than oil majors, which means that it has higher risk.

The sale and loss have reminded me that I should be more reluntant in buying stocks. Whenever I discover a new stock idea and had the impulse to buy, it is better to wait and set a lower buy point. And I should only buy stocks of companies who are of good quality. 

In addition, if I do not have strong conviction in the stock, it is best for me to put a mental stop loss i.e. treat the market price trend as knowing more than me. (Hmm, if I do not have strong conviction, why do I buy the stock in first place? It must be due to greed and over-confidence.)


Monday, July 4, 2022

Updates on Sales and Purchase in June 2022

Just updating my sales and purchases made in June

Have sold the following

- Micron -- sold half of my stake in mid-June to reduce risk of lower prices in downturn. Turns out that this move is correct now, as Micron share price falls after it provides lower guidance

- HRNet -- sold half of my stake in mid-June to raise cash. 

- Prosus -- sold all my stake, after its share price rises, as it is selling Tencent to buy its own stocks. I buy Prosus mainly for its Tencent stake. Took at loss here. But as my Tencent stake is a significant proportion of my portfolio, selling Prosus is a good chance for me to reduce concentration. I am keeping Tencent position for now. (Tencent position is a loss-making position; average buy price is $450)

Bought the following. Most are smallish position, except CNOOC

-- OXY, Rex Intl and CNOOC. They are bought as hedge. Rex Intl was bought at 0.345, so it was a loss making position. CNOOC bought due to its dividend. OXY was a Warren Buffet purchase

--United Hampshire Reit.  Buy mainly due to its high dividend yield and properties mainly in US (USD is getting stronger as interest rate rises). I will skip Euro-based Reits for now, as euro is getting weaker.

-- WBD. It's a recent merger between Warner Bro and Discovery. It has good content (e.g. DC Comics) and good distribution channel from Discovery. Down-side is that it has high debt. Thesis is that it will have cashflow to reduce its debt in next 2-3 years and market will re-rate it, as its balance sheet improves.

-- YFH Financial. Bought at $0.43. It's a value play with price-to-book of 0.4x. Its directors are buying. Downside is that it owns China debt/loans which are opaque. 

Moving forward, I am still waiting for market to go lower, to hit my buy prices of various stocks / ETFs before buying smallish position. My personal view is that this bear market has legs to run. 


80% of CapitaLand China Trust debts are in SGD

Earlier, I noted that Chinese reits have debts in non-RMB ( link ).  CapitaLand China Trust's borrowings are mostly in non-RMB too. In f...