2025 Review 2: Returns

1) Total Asset Growth

Total asset growth is 15.1%, mainly boosted by equity returns. 

2) Asset Composition / Allocation

Allocation-wise, I stick to mainly 60% equities - 40% non-equities over the years. 

	Cash	Monies in CPF	Fixed Deposit / T-Bills / Bond ETFs*	Stocks*	Precious Metals
2019	12%	23%	8%	57%	0%
2020	9%	23%	2%	66%	0%
2021	13%	21%	4%	61%	0%
2022	12%	22%	11%	55%	0%
2023	7%	9%	21%	63%	0%
2024	11%	11%	18%	59%	0%
2025	8%	16%	15%	59%	1%
*Including those bought using SRS / CPF

This year, I added 'Precious Metals' as part of diversification. Currently, I hold ALUM etf (i.e. aluminium etf) under 'Precious Metals'.

My stocks are broken down into 2 parts: Stocks bought using cash and Stocks bought using CPF-OA and SRS. I sold all stocks held under CPF-OA this year. 

	Stocks		Remarks
	Stock Portfolio (Cash)	SRS / CPF-OA Stock Portfolio
2024	85%	15%
2025	93%	7%	No stock held in CPF

3) Stock Portfolio (Cash) Return

This year's return is 22%, under-performing STI which has great returns this year. 

Year	% Returns	STI (incl Dividends)	SWDA ETF
2024	45.2%	22.1%	18.7%
2025	22.0%	27.2%	20.2%

3.1) Composition

HK shares form the bulk of the portfolio. The 'other stocks' refer to stocks / etfs listed in LSE.

3.2) Position Sizing

My number of positions and Top 10 concentration are relatively unchanged.

	Number of Stocks	Top 10 position size
At end 2016	21
At end 2021	19	71%
At end 2024	25	58%
At end 2025	26	59%

My top 5-6 positions are as followed. 

13.1%	Tencent
9.3%	FUTU
7.3%	Plower Bay
4.5%	LTAM ETF
4.4%	TCOM
4.4%	Yum China

3.3) Dividend Yield of my portfolio

2025 dividend yield is lower than 2024, due to large increase in portfolio size in 2024. And, if you look at my top positions above, some stock don't pay dividends. 

Year	Dividend Yield*
2024	4.1%
2025	3.4%

*Equals to Dividend Received / portfolio value at beginning of year

I look at two 10-years window i.e. 2016-2025 vs 2014-2023. Dividends comprise 86% of total returns for 2014-2023 but only 36% of total returns for 2016-25. This is due to larger capital gains in 2024 and 2025.  

Year	Dividends as % of Total Returns
2014-2023	86%
2016-2025	36%

3.4) Slight update at end of year

Purchase: 

DEMR ETF, bought at $31.5

It is a WisdomTree ETF on Emerging Market Income. Bought it for diversification and acceptable valuation. Currently, I am thinking of selling SEDY etf, as there is some overlap between SEDY and DEMR. And DEMR has quality and momentum filters not found in SEDY.

Kuashou (1024.HK): Added to my existing postion at $64.75

I bought a small position earlier. Decide to add to my position, as its share price is 5% lower compared to my earlier purchase price.   

2025 Review 1: Thoughts on 2025 and 2026

Lesson

1) I did not buy significantly during the Apr 2025 market decline. I was waiting for 20% decline but the market only decline 19%. For the next decline, I will start to buy significantly when market declines by 15%.

2) I bought Chagee earlier and broke my rule of not buying stock that are within 1 year of its listing. Subsequently, I sold Chagee at 35% loss. This teach me not to break my rules.

Diversification vs Concentration

3) I start to buy ETFs to diversify into other geographies such as Latin America and Emerging Markets. I am not familiar with markets outside Singapore and Hong Kong market. Hence, it is safer for me to buy into other markets via ETFs when I find their valuations good enough.

I also bought small positions in a few Singapore Reits as proxy diversification to real estate, as I do not own any property.

I also bought gold, silver and copper ETFs in 2Q 2025 for diversification in precious metals. However, I sold them in 4Q 2025, as their prices have run up and I am not sure if the price run will continue. On hindsight, I sold them too early, as their prices have continued to rise. 

4) I had re-think my view on portfolio concentration. In 2021, I wanted to be more concentrated and own great business. However, it is hard to find enough number of  stocks of great business to buy at reasonable price. In past few years, I manage to buy a few stocks that are good/great business. But most of the times, I find the stock price of good/great business too expensive for me, given my value investor mindset. 

Maybe my nature is not inclined towards concentrated portfolio. When I buy a stock, I will often ask 'What happens if I'm wrong?'. This prevents me from buying heavily into any one stock.

In addition, as I stop working, I become slightly more risk-averse. An Acadian post 'Concentrated portfolio managers: Courageously losing your money' noted the danger of concentration. As such, I decide to reduce the probability of bad outcome by being more diversified. 

Thoughts on 2026

5) Most world markets have a good run in 2025. They have become either reasonably valued or over-valued. While China/HK stocks seem reasonably valued, I have a positive view on China / HK stocks, as China's loose monetary policy, its $1 trillion trade surplus and expansionary fiscal policy will support the stock market.

6) From past experiences, when I had two good years, the third year will be down. I had two good years in 2024 and 2025. So I am cautious or slightly bearish on my 2026 stock returns. Similarly, I feel that 2026 STI returns may not be as good as 2025's, as STI has very good years in 2024 and 2025.   

7) I am not good at predictions. My above thoughts for 2026 may not materialise. 

Sima Yi

Sima Yi was a great military strategist in the late stage of the Three Kingdoms.  

I always find Sima Yi's philosophy useful for investors / traders.

Below is an interesting video on Sima Yi's philosophy (in Chinese though):

Cash Deployment Plan during Market Crash

This is Morgan Housel's plan for deploying $1,000 during market crash, noted in 2013 Motley Fool article. 

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/19/what-i-plan-to-do-when-the-market-crashes.aspx

Brian Feroldi has a video on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Af16HSn3aa4

Morgan Housel's allocation plan is pretty good. One can use it as base template and modify it to suit one's preference.  

Mid December Update

 Purchases

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $10.18.

Added, as its share price continued to fall. 

Kuaishou (1024.HK): Started a small position at $67.80. 

It's China short-video platform and has expanded overseas to Brazil. It has created AI tools to help content creators make better content and hence led to more viewership on its platform. It also uses AI for coding and handle customer service. Nonetheless, it has strong competitors in China like Douyin and Tencent video.  My buy price was around 16-17x PE. 

Chinney Kin Wing (1556.HK): Started a very small position at $0.345

It's a low PE stock. Its business is contruction in HK. Due to its low liquidity, I did not buy more. 

TIGR: Started a position at $9.24

It's a online brokerage with smaller geographical coverage compared to FUTU. I bought it because it is similar to FUTU (which I owned a position) and it trades at reasonably low ~11.2x LTM PE. Downside is that brokerage business may be cyclical i.e. its business may crater during bear markets. 

SEDY.L: Started at position at $12.975 pound

It's iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETF. Bought it for diversification (i.e. signficiant exposure to energy, materials and utilities in EM) and low valuation (based on P/E and P/B ratios in iShare ETF page). 

Sales

Intermestic 262A: Sold all at $2,000 yen, with a slight gain.

I sold because I was disappointed with the FY25 forecasted earnings and its odd acquisition in Oct 2025. On hindsight, I should have sold when the share price was around $3,000 yen

Bosideng: Sold all at $4.87, with around 28% gain.

Was disappointed with its 1H results showing flat growth. I expect some growth. 

361: Sold all at $6.05, with slight 4% gain over 3-4 months.

The China sports sector (e.g. Anta, 361) seems to enter a lower growth phrase given their 1H and 3Q 2025 sales. Decide to sell all to increase my cash position. 

Chagee: Sold all at $14.97, suffer a 35% loss

Sold all due to disappointment with its 3Q 2025 results. As I mentioned earlier, I should not break my rule (not buying stock within 1 year of IPO) and buy Chagee earlier. 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6.SI: Sold half at $3.5, with ~50% gain (incl dividends)

Decide to take some profit, as shipbuilding is a cyclical industry. Will look to sell the rest if the price rise further or when I need to raise more cash. 

Current Thoughts

The HK market has weakened recently. HSI has declined ~7.5% from its October high. Insofar, I had not added to my HK positions, as the prices of my HK stocks have not dropped enough to my buy price. If I am adding to my HK stocks, I may add cautiously, as I am adopting a more prudent stance as noted in my previous post. 

Thoughts on the US market

I am thinking that the US market has a significant probablity of a >10% decline in 2026.

I saw the first two charts at https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-the-case-for-a-year-end-melt-up

The charts showed that 2025 is a continuation of 2023-24 and eerily similar to1969, 1972, 1998-99 where a large correction occurred thereafter. 

Alpha Architect has a post on the current high valuations (based on CAPE ratio) in US market suggest negative real returns for the next 10 years. This suggest that the US market will go down sometime in future but we just don't know when.

When US market goes down, HK and SG markets may also go down to some extent. 

As such, I will adopt a more prudent stance and increase my cash level slightly moving forward. This will reduce my returns from equity but it will also reduce the losses from market correction if it happens. 

Nov 2025 Update

Purchases

Greggs (GRG.L): Started a position at $16-$17

It is a high street bakery in UK and is #1 for breakfast sales. Its share price had fell more than 40 this year due to high valuation and poor 2025 earnings. Its 2025 earnings are affected by inflation and UK govt policies (of higher national insurance). More details are in Motley Fool UK's article. I am betting that its will recover from its troubles in next 2-3 years. 

BYD (1211.HK): Further added to my position at $103. 

Added too early. If I have waited, I could have added at lower prices. 

Digital Core Reit (SGX: DCRU): Started a position at $0.49 USD

The reit holds data centres in US, Germany and Japan. Its dividend yield is ~7%. I bought it to increase my allocation to Reits and increase my diversification to a different asset (data centre in this case). 

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $11.20.

Based on its 1H 2025 results, its earnings seem to have recovered. At $11.20, the dividend yield (including special dividend) is 10%. In last 2 years, it had paid out 100% of its earnings, half in dividend and half in special dividends.

Stoneweg Europe Trust (SGX: SET): Started a position at $1.54. 

Bought it to increase my allocation to reits. At $1.54, it's dividend yield is above 8%. This reit owns offices and logistics/warehouses in Europe. 

Sales

HIDR ETF: Sold at 5% loss, after accounting for dividends.

I sold it to raise money to buy other stocks. I sold it too early. If I sell now, the sale will be at breakeven level. 

Best Mart (2360.HK): Sold 40% of my holdings at $2.14, earning around 30% profit

Sold to raise cash. Also decide to reduce my position in Best Mart. 

Glorious Sun (393.HK): Sold my whole position at $1.30-$1.32. Earn ~34% return.

Sold all, as I am not sure if it can maintain its dividend payout in future. 

ISLN ETF (USD): Sold half of my position at $47.2 at ~53% profit. 

This is an ETF on physical silver. Decide to take profit on half of my position, as silver prices had run quite high and I am not sure if high silver prices are sustainable. 

Current Thoughts

Recently, I had this thought that reits are closest to property investing with debt but without the hassle. How the reit perform will depend on its asset quality, its reit manager's competence and the interest rate environment. Anyway, the lower interest environment had led me to buy more reits recently. 

Currently, the US market seems to be correcting due to high valuations in AI-related stocks. I do not know if this correction will be fleeting or will last a while. I don't have much AI-related stocks in my portfolio. Nonetheless, when US market corrects, SG and HK markets will be affected too. So my stock portfolio will see some volatility ahead. 

Sep 2025 Update

Sales

Novodisk (NVO): Sold all a week later after buying, at slight loss 

The sale was due to afterthoughts on 1) more competitors in the space, 2) US govt trying to reduce the price of medicine and 3) my lack of knowledge in this space. 

Golden Throat (6896.HK): Sold all at $3.81; at 15% loss.

The sale was after a profit warning of >30% decline in earnings, which was unexpected. I decide to sell first.  

Ping An (2318.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at close to $56.

The sale was to raise cash for buying other stocks, and Ping An's 1H 2025 was not great. 

Purchases

361 Degree (1361.HK): Started a small position at $6. 

The company manufacture and sell footwear at affordable prices mainly to lower-tier cities in China. Its high-tier running shoes has some good reviews though. I bought a pair of its running shoes and found it very suitable for long walks (>10km). The downside is that it has some coporate governance issues in 2019 - 2021. In particular, it has issues in remitting cash out of China to repay its overseas loan in 2021. 

Infinity Dev (640.HK): Started a small position at $1.21

It manufactures and sell adhesives for footwear manufacturers. The purchase is bought as a dividend play. Dabao (a very good investor) has a substack post on this company. 

BYD (1211.HK): Started a position at ~$105

I view BYD as a growth play and a potential next Ford / Toyata, given its model of selling low-cost cars at scale. Downside is that EV industry is in volatile stage where the end winners are unknown. 

Greggs (GRG.L): Started a very small position at $15.72

Greggs operates quick service restuarants in UK, selling baked food. It out-ranked Mcdonald in morning sales. Its share price has fallen more than 50% due to lower profit arising from increased cost pressures. I believe that Greggs will eventually recover but the recovery may take time. Downside to me is that I don't live in UK and hence cannot form a good view on how good/bad Greggs' food / service is. 

Others

Chagee (CHA)

Its net income in 2Q 2025 was down 90% due to share-based compensation after a successful IPO. The large decline seems to be one-off. Also, its same store sales (esp in China) fell, as it did not discount its product and participate in the food delivery platform battle in China. Its share price has cratered after its 2Q 2025 results. I decide to hold the stock and wait for future earnings releases before assessing again on whether to add / sell the stock. Personally, I have ignored my rule of 'not buying stock that just IPO-ed within a year' when I bought Chagee. Perhaps this is a lesson for not sticking to my rule.

Current View

In recent weeks, I am less engaged in following the market, as I am more interested in doing other stuff. 

HK market has cooled down a bit from its recent high. The US Fed has cut interest rate by 25 basis points and there may be more cuts down the road. 

I have no idea of how the market will perform in future or what the interest rates will be in future. For now, I will add more to a few of existing positions if price drops and sell one or two existing positions to raise cash for the purchase (if any). 

 

Jul 2025 Update

 Sales

Yuexiu Services (6626.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at $3.11. 

In Mar, I was disappointed with its results and sold half of stake. Now, I take the slight increase in share price and sold the rest.  

Purchases

Golden Throat (6896.HK): Started a position at $4.22 - $4.46. 

The company sells a well-known lozenge in China that smoothe the throat, accounting for 90% of sales. And it pays out all its earnings as dividends in last 2 years. While the high dividend payout may not continue in future, the high div payout shows that its earnings are real and its capital allocation is good for its investors.

Pico Far East (752.HK): Added to my existing position, pre its interim dividend, at $2.60

Was pleased with its 1H 2025 results. If it can grow at 7% annually and maintian its 50% dividend payout ratio, it is not expensive to buy at below 10x P/E. 

China Feihe (6186.HK): Bought at $4.7 and sold at $4.65 a day later.

The buy thesis is that its share price drops after profit warning. However, its long-term prospect should be ok. However, after further review, the trend of declining number of babies poses a long-term challenge to its prospects. Hence, I decide to get out. 

Bosideng (3998.HK): Added at $4.20.

Took the opportunity of unexpected slight drop in price to add a small position to my existing position. 

United Hampshire Reit (SGX: ODBU): Started a position at $0.47 USD

Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.64 P/B and around 8.5% yield. It owns US suburban mall space, which provide stable property income. The downside is that its dividend are in USD and thus there will be exchange rate volatility when converted to SGD. 

OUE Reit (SGX: TSOU): Started at $0.305 (pre its interim dividend)

Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.53 P/B and around 6.7% yield. It owns 2 hotels, a shopping centre and some prime offices in SIngapore. The pro is that all its property are Singapore which is a stable environment for Reits and SGD is strong relatively to other currencies. The con is that a few of its properties' lease expires at 2056 / 2066.  

Chagee (CHA): Started a position at $23.2 and $22.4

It trades at ~12x P/E and ROE is ~40%. GabGrowth (Substack) has a detailed analysis. The downside is that it only IPOs recently (i.e. history is short) and its prospect beyond China is unknown. 

Novodisk (NVO): Started a position at $48.5

It trades at below 15x P/E and has ROE > 70%. While it has some hurdles in its sales growth and US demanding it to lower the price of its drugs, the long-term prospects seem ok at current valuations. Kontra Investments (Substack) has an interesting take on its recent hurdles. 

Current View

I had bought 2 reits this month to shore up my allocation to Reits. My aim is to have 10% in real estate/reits in long run for diversification / defensiveness purpose. My current allocation is 4%. 

I am currently 62% in stocks (at one point in Apr, I was 50% in stocks after selling to take risk off the table due to Trump tariffs). As I don't intend to increase the allocation to stocks further, any purchase in future likely require a sale of some existing positions. 

HK market and SG market has been hot in July. I do not know where the market will go in future. 

I realised that my sale of Oiltek in Apr at $1.10 pre-split was stupid on hindsight. Oiltek share price had tripled since. This and other incidents told me that for growth stocks, I should not sell for valuation reasons. 

Jun 25 Update

Sales

Sketcher: Sold whole position at $62, as it has been agreed to be taken over at $63 by 3G Capital. My cost price was around $55-56; not much profit

KE Holdings: Whole position was disposed, as the earlier sold call options were exercised at $17. My cost price was $17; so I earned the call option price.

Purchases

HIDR ETF (GBP): Bought a small position at $47.7.

This is an ETF on Indonesia stocks. 

JD (9618.HK): Bought smallish positions at $138, $130, $125

Have put a Good-to-cancel buy order at $120. JD's trading at 8x PE. The recent price weakness is caused by its entry / subsidies into food delivery. JD founder had explained the rationale of its plans.

Intermestic (262A Japan): Added more at $1,800 yen

May have added early, as it is trading at $1,650 yen now. It's trading at ~11.5 P/E. I'm betting on its growth potential. 

LTAM ETF (GBP): Further increase position at $11.50

I started buying this ETF in Apr 2025.

Current View

We are in a boring phrase now, where there's not much up and down. Unless you own oil stocks. 

We may see more volatility in July, as Trump tarriffs may rise for countries failing to reach a deal with the US. Or Trump may extend the tariff negotiation timeline and we're back to 'boring' phrase. 

Apr 25 Update

Sales

Stella International: Sold all my position at $15.20 after Trump's tariffs. Cost price is $17.40

It is stupid of me to bought just before announcement of Trump's tariffs. 

Dream International: Sold all my position at $5.80-$5.95. 

Sold due to Trump's tariffs, as its factories are in Vietnam. 

Marco Polo Marine: Sold all at $0.044. Cost price is $0.053.

Sold due to desire to hold more cash and dispose of positions with less conviction in these uncertain times. 

Oiltek: Sold all my remaining stake at $1.10.

Sold due to desire to hold more cash in these uncertain times. It may be a mistake to sell it, as it is trading at $1.40. Nonetheless, I probably lack conviction and understanding in the stock.

CNOOC: Sold all my remaining stake at $16.32

Sold, as oil prices could be weak this year. OPEC may increase supply of crude oil and the possible US recession reduce demand for oil

Glorious Sun: Sold a minor portion at $1.16

Sold due to reducing the position size, as I want to have less exposure to China banks. Glorious Sun has stakes in ICBC. CCB and BOC.

Atour: Sold all at $23.75. Cost price is $25.

Took a minor loss. Sold due to delisting risk from US, as Atour is a China company and it is not dual-listed in HK.

Meituan: Sold majority of my stake at $129. Cost price is around $150.

Sold due to JD entering Meituan's market which may lead to increased competition and lowered profits for all players.

Ping An: Sold half of my position at $45.

Sold due to (1) poor 1Q 2025 results, (2) desire to reduce my position sizing in Ping An, (3) disappointment in Ping An's inability to turnaround its business. It's business had worsen since 2020-21 and (4) desire to hold more cash

Purchases

Sketcher: Bought a minor stake at $49.50. Also, earlier sold put options was exercised; purchase price is $58 after netting off option sale price.

I believe in Sketcher's positioning in shoes market. While it may take a hit in its US sales and profit in these 1-2 years, it should be able to recover.

Nameson: Increase stake slightly at $0.81

Bought too early. Should wait a few days before buying at lower price. 

Intermestic: Bought a tiny stake at 1,380 yen.

Should have bought more when share price dropped to 1,380 yen.

Best Mart: Increase stake slightly at $1.67

Its dividend yield is >10%. Its business are sheltered from Trump's tariffs, as it caters to HK and Macau markets only.

LTAM ETF (GBP): Bought a small stake at $10.65-$11.45

This is an ETF on Latin America. Latin America could be a beneficiary in this tariff war, as China increases purchases of agricultural goods from Brazil and production of shoes / textiles for US could shift to South America. In addition, Latin America equities are inexpensive. 

ISLN ETF (USD): Bought a small stake at $30.70

This is an ETF on physical silver. I decide to slowly increase exposure to metals such as silver and gold. The exposure will not be large. Such exposure will serve as hedge / insurance during uncertain times, as metals may have low correlation with equities and bonds. So this purchase is a start.  

Current View

Currently, S&P 500 rose back to its pre-Liberation Day value. I cannot understand the rising S&P 500, when the odds of US recession is high. The market seems certain that US will reach a deal with China soon to avert a recession in US. 

My read is that US-China deal will not happen anytime soon. China can bear the pain from tariffs war better than US. When US finds the pain from tariffs unbearable, 

- US can reduce its tariffs on China unilaterally, and China will follow suit and reduce its tariffs on US.

- Or US will try to reach a deal with China. Then the longer the deal takes, the more pain US will feel from the tariffs and the stronger the China position will be in the negotiation.  

Anyway, I can't predict what will happen. My equties allocation is around 50%. So if market worsen or improves, I will lose some or gain some.