Monday, August 4, 2025

Jul 2025 Update

 Sales

Yuexiu Services (6626.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at $3.11. 
In Mar, I was disappointed with its results and sold half of stake. Now, I take the slight increase in share price and sold the rest.  

Purchases

Golden Throat (6896.HK): Started a position at $4.22 - $4.46. 
The company sells a well-known lozenge in China that smoothe the throat, accounting for 90% of sales. And it pays out all its earnings as dividends in last 2 years. While the high dividend payout may not continue in future, the high div payout shows that its earnings are real and its capital allocation is good for its investors.

Pico Far East (752.HK): Added to my existing position, pre its interim dividend, at $2.60
Was pleased with its 1H 2025 results. If it can grow at 7% annually and maintian its 50% dividend payout ratio, it is not expensive to buy at below 10x P/E. 

China Feihe (6186.HK): Bought at $4.7 and sold at $4.65 a day later.
The buy thesis is that its share price drops after profit warning. However, its long-term prospect should be ok. However, after further review, the trend of declining number of babies poses a long-term challenge to its prospects. Hence, I decide to get out. 

Bosideng (3998.HK): Added at $4.20.
Took the opportunity of unexpected slight drop in price to add a small position to my existing position. 

United Hampshire Reit (SGX: ODBU): Started a position at $0.47 USD
Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.64 P/B and around 8.5% yield. It owns US suburban mall space, which provide stable property income. The downside is that its dividend are in USD and thus there will be exchange rate volatility when converted to SGD. 

OUE Reit (SGX: TSOU): Started at $0.305 (pre its interim dividend)
Bought to increase my allocation to REITs. It trades at 0.53 P/B and around 6.7% yield. It owns 2 hotels, a shopping centre and some prime offices in SIngapore. The pro is that all its property are Singapore which is a stable environment for Reits and SGD is strong relatively to other currencies. The con is that a few of its properties' lease expires at 2056 / 2066.  

Chagee (CHA): Started a position at $23.2 and $22.4
It trades at ~12x P/E and ROE is ~40%. GabGrowth (Substack) has a detailed analysis. The downside is that it only IPOs recently (i.e. history is short) and its prospect beyond China is unknown. 

Novodisk (NVO): Started a position at $48.5
It trades at below 15x P/E and has ROE > 70%. While it has some hurdles in its sales growth and US demanding it to lower the price of its drugs, the long-term prospects seem ok at current valuations. Kontra Investments (Substack) has an interesting take on its recent hurdles. 

Current View
I had bought 2 reits this month to shore up my allocation to Reits. My aim is to have 10% in real estate/reits in long run for diversification / defensiveness purpose. My current allocation is 4%. 

I am currently 62% in stocks (at one point in Apr, I was 50% in stocks after selling to take risk off the table due to Trump tariffs). As I don't intend to increase the allocation to stocks further, any purchase in future likely require a sale of some existing positions. 

HK market and SG market has been hot in July. I do not know where the market will go in future. 

I realised that my sale of Oiltek in Apr at $1.10 pre-split was stupid on hindsight. Oiltek share price had tripled since. This and other incidents told me that for growth stocks, I should not sell for valuation reasons. 



Jul 2025 Update

  Sales Yuexiu Services (6626.HK): Sold all my remaining stake at $3.11.  In Mar, I was disappointed with its results and sold half of stake...