Thoughts on the US market

I am thinking that the US market has a significant probablity of a >10% decline in 2026.

I saw the first two charts at https://www.theirrelevantinvestor.com/p/the-compound-and-friends-the-case-for-a-year-end-melt-up

The charts showed that 2025 is a continuation of 2023-24 and eerily similar to1969, 1972, 1998-99 where a large correction occurred thereafter. 

Alpha Architect has a post on the current high valuations (based on CAPE ratio) in US market suggest negative real returns for the next 10 years. This suggest that the US market will go down sometime in future but we just don't know when.

When US market goes down, HK and SG markets may also go down to some extent. 

As such, I will adopt a more prudent stance and increase my cash level slightly moving forward. This will reduce my returns from equity but it will also reduce the losses from market correction if it happens. 

Nov 2025 Update

Purchases

Greggs (GRG.L): Started a position at $16-$17

It is a high street bakery in UK and is #1 for breakfast sales. Its share price had fell more than 40 this year due to high valuation and poor 2025 earnings. Its 2025 earnings are affected by inflation and UK govt policies (of higher national insurance). More details are in Motley Fool UK's article. I am betting that its will recover from its troubles in next 2-3 years. 

BYD (1211.HK): Further added to my position at $103. 

Added too early. If I have waited, I could have added at lower prices. 

Digital Core Reit (SGX: DCRU): Started a position at $0.49 USD

The reit holds data centres in US, Germany and Japan. Its dividend yield is ~7%. I bought it to increase my allocation to Reits and increase my diversification to a different asset (data centre in this case). 

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $11.20.

Based on its 1H 2025 results, its earnings seem to have recovered. At $11.20, the dividend yield (including special dividend) is 10%. In last 2 years, it had paid out 100% of its earnings, half in dividend and half in special dividends.

Stoneweg Europe Trust (SGX: SET): Started a position at $1.54. 

Bought it to increase my allocation to reits. At $1.54, it's dividend yield is above 8%. This reit owns offices and logistics/warehouses in Europe. 

Sales

HIDR ETF: Sold at 5% loss, after accounting for dividends.

I sold it to raise money to buy other stocks. I sold it too early. If I sell now, the sale will be at breakeven level. 

Best Mart (2360.HK): Sold 40% of my holdings at $2.14, earning around 30% profit

Sold to raise cash. Also decide to reduce my position in Best Mart. 

Glorious Sun (393.HK): Sold my whole position at $1.30-$1.32. Earn ~34% return.

Sold all, as I am not sure if it can maintain its dividend payout in future. 

ISLN ETF (USD): Sold half of my position at $47.2 at ~53% profit. 

This is an ETF on physical silver. Decide to take profit on half of my position, as silver prices had run quite high and I am not sure if high silver prices are sustainable. 

Current Thoughts

Recently, I had this thought that reits are closest to property investing with debt but without the hassle. How the reit perform will depend on its asset quality, its reit manager's competence and the interest rate environment. Anyway, the lower interest environment had led me to buy more reits recently. 

Currently, the US market seems to be correcting due to high valuations in AI-related stocks. I do not know if this correction will be fleeting or will last a while. I don't have much AI-related stocks in my portfolio. Nonetheless, when US market corrects, SG and HK markets will be affected too. So my stock portfolio will see some volatility ahead.