Friday, March 6, 2026

Early March Updates and Thoughts

Change in Format

I decide to switch to a more laid-back format and not write on all my purchases and sales. Instead, I shall pen down my thoughts on interesting or current happenings. And some sales/purchases of note

Redeeming my bond fund bought using CPF-OA

I had some money in Amova Short Term Bond Fund bought via CPF-OA. I had redeemed all of it in Feb 2026, as the last 6 months return is less than 1.25% (i.e. less than the annualised 2.5% CPF-OA interest rate). Hence, I had redeemed my monies in the bond fund and put the monies back into CPF instead. 

Voluntary Contribution to CPF

In Jan 2026, I had done a voluntary contribution of $37,740 (the max limit) to CPF. This will earn higher interest in CPF, compared to putting money in money market fund. 

What I had been doing since US-Iran War

Nothing much. 

First, I sold all my holdings in Greggs and Trip.com. The sale had nothing to do with the war. Rather, I sold Greggs because I am disappointed with its prospect in next two years. I sold Trip.com because I find that I bought them at too low hurdle rate (i.e. I was not demanding enough on the expected returns) and Trip.com has SMAR probe and AI competition from Qwen. 

This week, I bought a bit of HS Tech (3067.HK) as it corrected more than 25% from its peak in last Oct. I also sold a bit of puts in JD. Seperately, I sold a quarter of my holdings in Plover Bay (1523.HK) at $9 i.e. a rich 28x PE. I like the company and its management; just that 28x PE is a bit expensive and hence I decide to trim a bit.

I had not deployed much capital, as the share indices did not drop much. I don't think that the war will lead to large drops in share indices, unless the war will last for a long time and lead to significant increases in oil price -> high inflation. 

I am not interested in current beneficiaries such as gold, energy/oil and materials, as these had already run up. I am not sure if their prices will run higher. I also do not know how the US-Iran war will unfold nor when the war will end. 

Others

TIGR

I had sold all my stake (except the sold puts) in TIGR at $8.2. I re-looked and find that TIGR did not fit my stock selection criteria, as it is not high quality enough and its dividend yield is not high enough. (So it is another own-goal or unforced error from myself.)

Currently, I had two stock selection strategies (for non-Reits):

1) Cheap + Good dividend yield 

2) Good Quality at reasonable valuation

While TIGR valuation is reasonable, I think that it is not unique enough and has formiable competitors such as IBKR and Futu. 

3119 HK Global X Asia Semicon ETF

I bought a small position in in 3119.HK at around $110 in late Jan 2026. I wanted to own some memory stocks (which are mostly Korean stocks) and find this ETF a convenient way to own memory and semi-con stocks. 

As memory and semicon are cyclical industries, I don't intend to hold the ETF for long-term. I will sell my holdings when the price is high enough or when the demand for memory / semicon declines. I do admit that this position is a bit speculative, as it is a play on the high demand for memory and semicon arising from the AI buildout. 

Some thoughts

Recently, I find that it is better and safer to focus on finding cheap stocks paying good dividend yields. Because they offer downside protection and are more easily found, compared to 'Quality at reasonable price (QARP)'. Also, cheap + good dividend stocks are easier to hold (or accumulate more) when their prices drop. 

QARP are more easily found during market corrections of close to 20% e.g. 2022. On other times, when you find a 'compounder' with falling share prices:

- it can be hard to know if the 'compounder' has sufficient quality to recover e.g. NVO, or

- the valuation seem not cheap enough for me. E.g. Booking at $3,900 seems not cheap enough to me, given the AI threat to its margins in the long-term. 

Friday, February 6, 2026

Notes on an interesting week

The US market is quite interesting or volatile this week, even though S&P 500 is relatively unchanged while QQQ dropped 2%.

Basically, in this week, some tech stock prices and software stock prices have been declining due to 

1) Sell off in gold/silver drawing liquidity away from market

2) Anthropic new legal AI assistant drawing investors' attention to possibility of AI disrupting software

3) High capex announced by MSFT, Goog, Amazon, Meta -> leads to lower share prices for MSFT and Amazon

4) Sell off in Bitcoin (prices dropped close to $60K) drawing liquidity away from market

On AI disrupting software, my thoughts are that AI lowers the barriers of entry to software, leading to more competitors. And, more competitors kill margin. E.g. There can be more startups using AI to enter software space. Big software companies could use AI to add functions and encroach another software company's area. 

In short, I do not own any software stocks. Neither am I looking to buy any software stocks. Probably except Microsoft, which I may buy if its share price dropped lower. 

There are two interesting webpages on the AI disruption

https://stratechery.com/2026/microsoft-and-software-survival/

https://csunerd.substack.com/p/the-doom-and-loom-of-today 

Wednesday, January 28, 2026

Most Controversial Topics in Personal Finance by Ben Felix

Ben Felix, CIO in PWL (Canadian financial firm) regularly posts Youtube videos on personal finance and investing stuff. 

Here is a video of his discussing about

- Renting vs Owning

- Income Investing

- FIRE

The video is quite enlightening for those not familar in the above topics. 



Thursday, January 22, 2026

Mid January 2026 Update

Purchases

JD 9618.HK: Added a small position at $115 HKD. Also sold a few puts (strike price $115, expires at end Dec 2026).
I feels that JD is undervalued, if one values it via sum-of-parts. But for JD share price to recover, JD need to substantially reduce its losses in food delivery war. I do not know when it will happen. I sold a few puts to earn put income if JD share price recovers. If it remained below $115, I am happy to buy JD at lower prices (after netting off the income from the put).

Lion-OCBC HangSeng Tech ETF: Bought a small position at $0.928 SGD via SRS.
SRS monies are restricted to those listed in SGX or ETFs / funds offered by platforms in Singapore. I have some cash in SRS account, so I decide to deploy them into HangSeng Tech ETF. I feel that next few years will be positive for China tech, as President Xi Jinping had told tech bosses in Feb 2025: "Get rich and promote common prosperity." 

Sales

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6.SI: Sold remaining at $3.51, with ~50% gain (incl dividends)
Decide to sell all. I bought it in 2025, when US was threatening fees on Chinese-built ships. Now the share price has more than recovered and I am not interested to hold shipbuilder stock for long-term. As such, there is not much reason for me to hold on to the stock. So I decided to sold all.

Others
TIGR: Sold some puts (strike price $9, expires at mid Apr 2026).
I bought TIGR shares earlier at $9.24 earlier. Now, I wanted to add more shares at 10% lower  than my initial buy price. I am not sure if prices will fall 10%. So I decided to sell some puts. If prices remain above $9, I get to earn the put income. If prices fall below $9, I get to buy more TIGR at ~10% lower (after netting off the put income) than my initial buy price. Well, if TIGR falls 10% or more from $9.24, I will buy some shares directly to add to my existing position. 

Alibaba 9988.HK: Sold some puts.(strike price $142.5, expires at end Dec 2026).
I am not keen to own Alibaba. (Don't ask why.) But I am ok to buy it at lower price. So I sold some puts. If its price drops below $142.5 by end Dec, I am ok to own it at lower price. If not, I just earn the put income. 

Current Thoughts

The recent SAMR probe into TCOM has some slight impact on my portfolio. I have a small % of my portfolio in TCOM. I intend to hold TCOM, as I think that the probe should not cause long-term damage to TCOM's moat. Let's see what happens.

Insofar, I had not really owned any AI-related software/hardware stocks. As such, I do not benefit from the trending higher prices for AI-related stock. This is fine, as I don't really understand how long the AI trend will last and the valuations of AI-related stocks are high. 


Sunday, January 11, 2026

Looking at the Sky (看天)

The sky is always there, regardless rain or shine; good or bad.

Cloud comes in different sizes and shapes. Like randomness, impermanence in the world. Also reminds one of different people, characters of all kinds. 

People may think grey cloud is bad, because it implies incoming rain. But rain fills up reservoir and provides water to fishes in rivers. A person may look haggard and older than his/her age, perhaps because he/she worked hard to support family. 

Grey cloud implies incoming rain. Later it rain, even though the weather forecast says no rain. Don't trust forecast 100%. The forecast may be inaccurate or too general to be applicable to your situation.

Sky does not judge. It does not care whether there's cloud or blue sky, rain or shine. We may need to exercise judgement in our work, our life. Should we be like the sky when there's no need to judge?

Post-note: Sky reminds me of a Chinese saying: 天有不测风云,人有旦夕祸福 (source

Early March Updates and Thoughts

Change in Format I decide to switch to a more laid-back format and not write on all my purchases and sales. Instead, I shall pen down my tho...