Mid January 2026 Update

Purchases

JD 9618.HK: Added a small position at $115 HKD. Also sold a few puts (strike price $115, expires at end Dec 2026).

I feels that JD is undervalued, if one values it via sum-of-parts. But for JD share price to recover, JD need to substantially reduce its losses in food delivery war. I do not know when it will happen. I sold a few puts to earn put income if JD share price recovers. If it remained below $115, I am happy to buy JD at lower prices (after netting off the income from the put).

Lion-OCBC HangSeng Tech ETF: Bought a small position at $0.928 SGD via SRS.

SRS monies are restricted to those listed in SGX or ETFs / funds offered by platforms in Singapore. I have some cash in SRS account, so I decide to deploy them into HangSeng Tech ETF. I feel that next few years will be positive for China tech, as President Xi Jinping had told tech bosses in Feb 2025: "Get rich and promote common prosperity." 

Sales

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6.SI: Sold remaining at $3.51, with ~50% gain (incl dividends)

Decide to sell all. I bought it in 2025, when US was threatening fees on Chinese-built ships. Now the share price has more than recovered and I am not interested to hold shipbuilder stock for long-term. As such, there is not much reason for me to hold on to the stock. So I decided to sold all.

Others

TIGR: Sold some puts (strike price $9, expires at mid Apr 2026).

I bought TIGR shares earlier at $9.24 earlier. Now, I wanted to add more shares at 10% lower  than my initial buy price. I am not sure if prices will fall 10%. So I decided to sell some puts. If prices remain above $9, I get to earn the put income. If prices fall below $9, I get to buy more TIGR at ~10% lower (after netting off the put income) than my initial buy price. Well, if TIGR falls 10% or more from $9.24, I will buy some shares directly to add to my existing position. 

Alibaba 9988.HK: Sold some puts.(strike price $142.5, expires at end Dec 2026).

I am not keen to own Alibaba. (Don't ask why.) But I am ok to buy it at lower price. So I sold some puts. If its price drops below $142.5 by end Dec, I am ok to own it at lower price. If not, I just earn the put income. 

Current Thoughts

The recent SAMR probe into TCOM has some slight impact on my portfolio. I have a small % of my portfolio in TCOM. I intend to hold TCOM, as I think that the probe should not cause long-term damage to TCOM's moat. Let's see what happens.

Insofar, I had not really owned any AI-related software/hardware stocks. As such, I do not benefit from the trending higher prices for AI-related stock. This is fine, as I don't really understand how long the AI trend will last and the valuations of AI-related stocks are high. 

Looking at the Sky (看天）

The sky is always there, regardless rain or shine; good or bad.

Cloud comes in different sizes and shapes. Like randomness, impermanence in the world. Also reminds one of different people, characters of all kinds. 

People may think grey cloud is bad, because it implies incoming rain. But rain fills up reservoir and provides water to fishes in rivers. A person may look haggard and older than his/her age, perhaps because he/she worked hard to support family. 

Grey cloud implies incoming rain. Later it rain, even though the weather forecast says no rain. Don't trust forecast 100%. The forecast may be inaccurate or too general to be applicable to your situation.

Sky does not judge. It does not care whether there's cloud or blue sky, rain or shine. We may need to exercise judgement in our work, our life. Should we be like the sky when there's no need to judge?

Post-note: Sky reminds me of a Chinese saying: 天有不测风云，人有旦夕祸福 (source) 

2025 Review 2: Returns

1) Total Asset Growth

Total asset growth is 15.1%, mainly boosted by equity returns. 

2) Asset Composition / Allocation

Allocation-wise, I stick to mainly 60% equities - 40% non-equities over the years. 

	Cash	Monies in CPF	Fixed Deposit / T-Bills / Bond ETFs*	Stocks*	Precious Metals
2019	12%	23%	8%	57%	0%
2020	9%	23%	2%	66%	0%
2021	13%	21%	4%	61%	0%
2022	12%	22%	11%	55%	0%
2023	7%	9%	21%	63%	0%
2024	11%	11%	18%	59%	0%
2025	8%	16%	15%	59%	1%
*Including those bought using SRS / CPF

This year, I added 'Precious Metals' as part of diversification. Currently, I hold ALUM etf (i.e. aluminium etf) under 'Precious Metals'.

My stocks are broken down into 2 parts: Stocks bought using cash and Stocks bought using CPF-OA and SRS. I sold all stocks held under CPF-OA this year. 

	Stocks		Remarks
	Stock Portfolio (Cash)	SRS / CPF-OA Stock Portfolio
2024	85%	15%
2025	93%	7%	No stock held in CPF

3) Stock Portfolio (Cash) Return

This year's return is 22%, under-performing STI which has great returns this year. 

Year	% Returns	STI (incl Dividends)	SWDA ETF
2024	45.2%	22.1%	18.7%
2025	22.0%	27.2%	20.2%

3.1) Composition

HK shares form the bulk of the portfolio. The 'other stocks' refer to stocks / etfs listed in LSE.

3.2) Position Sizing

My number of positions and Top 10 concentration are relatively unchanged.

	Number of Stocks	Top 10 position size
At end 2016	21
At end 2021	19	71%
At end 2024	25	58%
At end 2025	26	59%

My top 5-6 positions are as followed. 

13.1%	Tencent
9.3%	FUTU
7.3%	Plower Bay
4.5%	LTAM ETF
4.4%	TCOM
4.4%	Yum China

3.3) Dividend Yield of my portfolio

2025 dividend yield is lower than 2024, due to large increase in portfolio size in 2024. And, if you look at my top positions above, some stock don't pay dividends. 

Year	Dividend Yield*
2024	4.1%
2025	3.4%

*Equals to Dividend Received / portfolio value at beginning of year

I look at two 10-years window i.e. 2016-2025 vs 2014-2023. Dividends comprise 86% of total returns for 2014-2023 but only 36% of total returns for 2016-25. This is due to larger capital gains in 2024 and 2025.  

Year	Dividends as % of Total Returns
2014-2023	86%
2016-2025	36%

3.4) Slight update at end of year

Purchase: 

DEMR ETF, bought at $31.5

It is a WisdomTree ETF on Emerging Market Income. Bought it for diversification and acceptable valuation. Currently, I am thinking of selling SEDY etf, as there is some overlap between SEDY and DEMR. And DEMR has quality and momentum filters not found in SEDY.

Kuashou (1024.HK): Added to my existing postion at $64.75

I bought a small position earlier. Decide to add to my position, as its share price is 5% lower compared to my earlier purchase price.   

2025 Review 1: Thoughts on 2025 and 2026

Lesson

1) I did not buy significantly during the Apr 2025 market decline. I was waiting for 20% decline but the market only decline 19%. For the next decline, I will start to buy significantly when market declines by 15%.

2) I bought Chagee earlier and broke my rule of not buying stock that are within 1 year of its listing. Subsequently, I sold Chagee at 35% loss. This teach me not to break my rules.

Diversification vs Concentration

3) I start to buy ETFs to diversify into other geographies such as Latin America and Emerging Markets. I am not familiar with markets outside Singapore and Hong Kong market. Hence, it is safer for me to buy into other markets via ETFs when I find their valuations good enough.

I also bought small positions in a few Singapore Reits as proxy diversification to real estate, as I do not own any property.

I also bought gold, silver and copper ETFs in 2Q 2025 for diversification in precious metals. However, I sold them in 4Q 2025, as their prices have run up and I am not sure if the price run will continue. On hindsight, I sold them too early, as their prices have continued to rise. 

4) I had re-think my view on portfolio concentration. In 2021, I wanted to be more concentrated and own great business. However, it is hard to find enough number of  stocks of great business to buy at reasonable price. In past few years, I manage to buy a few stocks that are good/great business. But most of the times, I find the stock price of good/great business too expensive for me, given my value investor mindset. 

Maybe my nature is not inclined towards concentrated portfolio. When I buy a stock, I will often ask 'What happens if I'm wrong?'. This prevents me from buying heavily into any one stock.

In addition, as I stop working, I become slightly more risk-averse. An Acadian post 'Concentrated portfolio managers: Courageously losing your money' noted the danger of concentration. As such, I decide to reduce the probability of bad outcome by being more diversified. 

Thoughts on 2026

5) Most world markets have a good run in 2025. They have become either reasonably valued or over-valued. While China/HK stocks seem reasonably valued, I have a positive view on China / HK stocks, as China's loose monetary policy, its $1 trillion trade surplus and expansionary fiscal policy will support the stock market.

6) From past experiences, when I had two good years, the third year will be down. I had two good years in 2024 and 2025. So I am cautious or slightly bearish on my 2026 stock returns. Similarly, I feel that 2026 STI returns may not be as good as 2025's, as STI has very good years in 2024 and 2025.   

7) I am not good at predictions. My above thoughts for 2026 may not materialise. 

Sima Yi

Sima Yi was a great military strategist in the late stage of the Three Kingdoms.  

I always find Sima Yi's philosophy useful for investors / traders.

Below is an interesting video on Sima Yi's philosophy (in Chinese though):

Cash Deployment Plan during Market Crash

This is Morgan Housel's plan for deploying $1,000 during market crash, noted in 2013 Motley Fool article. 

Source: https://www.fool.com/investing/general/2013/08/19/what-i-plan-to-do-when-the-market-crashes.aspx

Brian Feroldi has a video on it:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Af16HSn3aa4

Morgan Housel's allocation plan is pretty good. One can use it as base template and modify it to suit one's preference.  

Mid December Update

 Purchases

NOAH: Added to my existing position at $10.18.

Added, as its share price continued to fall. 

Kuaishou (1024.HK): Started a small position at $67.80. 

It's China short-video platform and has expanded overseas to Brazil. It has created AI tools to help content creators make better content and hence led to more viewership on its platform. It also uses AI for coding and handle customer service. Nonetheless, it has strong competitors in China like Douyin and Tencent video.  My buy price was around 16-17x PE. 

Chinney Kin Wing (1556.HK): Started a very small position at $0.345

It's a low PE stock. Its business is contruction in HK. Due to its low liquidity, I did not buy more. 

TIGR: Started a position at $9.24

It's a online brokerage with smaller geographical coverage compared to FUTU. I bought it because it is similar to FUTU (which I owned a position) and it trades at reasonably low ~11.2x LTM PE. Downside is that brokerage business may be cyclical i.e. its business may crater during bear markets. 

SEDY.L: Started at position at $12.975 pound

It's iShares EM Dividend UCITS ETF. Bought it for diversification (i.e. signficiant exposure to energy, materials and utilities in EM) and low valuation (based on P/E and P/B ratios in iShare ETF page). 

Sales

Intermestic 262A: Sold all at $2,000 yen, with a slight gain.

I sold because I was disappointed with the FY25 forecasted earnings and its odd acquisition in Oct 2025. On hindsight, I should have sold when the share price was around $3,000 yen

Bosideng: Sold all at $4.87, with around 28% gain.

Was disappointed with its 1H results showing flat growth. I expect some growth. 

361: Sold all at $6.05, with slight 4% gain over 3-4 months.

The China sports sector (e.g. Anta, 361) seems to enter a lower growth phrase given their 1H and 3Q 2025 sales. Decide to sell all to increase my cash position. 

Chagee: Sold all at $14.97, suffer a 35% loss

Sold all due to disappointment with its 3Q 2025 results. As I mentioned earlier, I should not break my rule (not buying stock within 1 year of IPO) and buy Chagee earlier. 

Yangzijiang Shipbuilding BS6.SI: Sold half at $3.5, with ~50% gain (incl dividends)

Decide to take some profit, as shipbuilding is a cyclical industry. Will look to sell the rest if the price rise further or when I need to raise more cash. 

Current Thoughts

The HK market has weakened recently. HSI has declined ~7.5% from its October high. Insofar, I had not added to my HK positions, as the prices of my HK stocks have not dropped enough to my buy price. If I am adding to my HK stocks, I may add cautiously, as I am adopting a more prudent stance as noted in my previous post.