Monday, December 6, 2010

Afterthoughts about recent selling decisions

I shall record some afterthoughts of my selling decisions in the last two months.

First, I dispose my Bright World stake at around 35 cents, which is much lower than the 50+ cents now. What interests me is not the 'gains' lost. Rather, my interest is piqued by the thought that my lack of knowledge (or failure to predict) the quick rise in stock price is the cause for the gains lost. As I do not know any story that may lead to further large gains in the price of Bright World, it becomes logical for me to sell Bright World and switch to other more attractive stocks.

In short, I find it interesting that the 'gains' lost is somewhat deserved, since I do not know any reasons for further large price increases in Bright World.

Second, I dispose my Valutronics stake, after reading in a book that entering into adjacent markets may not be profitable at times. Perhaps I become more risk-averse after reading the book. Or probably, my selling decision is due to the availability bias that I suffered after reading the book.

Availability bias is a bias that I suffered from time to time. For example, I tend to buy stocks after good earnings announcement, or after some positive research report. Thankfully, this bias has not caused great grief to me.

Finally, I have also disposed my Ziwo stake, since I dislike secondary listings in Taiwan. The Taiwan listing may not provide significant increase in Ziwo's share price, since I guess that stocks listed in SGX cannot be sold in Taiex. Furthermore, the secondary listing is a dilution of shareholder's stake in the company. I dislike dilution.

Well, it seems that my selling decisions can be emotional. Conversely, my buying decisions are also emotional (i.e. anticipation of large gains).



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