2019 Review

1)  Performance

My stock portfolio has 8.4% return in 2019, slightly underperformed STI ETF (9%).

The portfolio is pulled down by Eagle Hospitality Trust (bought at around USD $0.7), George Kent (bought at around M$1.20), HRnet (bought at 0.78) and Kingsmen Creative (bought at $0.55).

In addition, my portfolio does not have much REITs; hence it does not benefit from the good returns REITs enjoyed this year.

Looking at long-term performance, I started buying stocks in 2004. The average annual returns from 2004-19 is 14%. My returns are higher in earlier years, probably helped by small portfolio. From 2013-2019, my stock portfolio average annual returns are 10%.

2) Non-Stock Portfolio

I have other stuff besides my stock portfolio and it comprise mainly SRS account, ETFs and Singapore Savings Bond (SSB). The SRS account mainly holds STI ETF.

On ETF, I started to buy VWRA (an ETF on Global Stocks listed in LSE) this year in Nov. Moving forward, I will make monthly purchase of this ETFs, so as to maintain the stock-cash ratio. This will also help to diversify my holdings which are Singapore-centric.

     3) Edge

I have under-performed STI index in the last 2 years. I feel that I am maybe losing my edge in the stock market. Not sure if this is due to aging or less interest in stock market. I may skew more towards ETFs in future.

4) Position Sizing

8% of my stock portfolio was in Eagle Hospitality Trust before the large drop in Nov 2019. The drop makes me feel that I should have a smaller position in Eagle and hence my position sizing was off.

In future, for more risky stocks, I should maybe limit myself to not more than 5%. This may drag down returns, but it also helps to make my stock portfolio more stable.

5) Personal Expenses

I don’t do budgeting. I tried keeping a budget for a while a few years ago and find that my largest expenses are (1) monthly contributions to my parents and (2) income tax. These 2 items are my main outflows every month. And I think that they are still my largest outflow in 2019.

6) Net Asset Growth

I started keeping track on my net asset in 2014. The net asset coverage could be less comprehensive when I started. Anyway, my net asset include cash, stocks, bonds and CPF.

My net asset has been growing annually. The increase in net asset is mainly driven by wages and the fluctuations from year-to-year are due to stock portfolio returns.

Apr - Jun update

The market is back to its high recently, especially with Reits choinging.

I don't hold a lot of Reits. Nonetheless, the sale of some some reit stocks gives me the headache of looking for better stock(s) to buy with the money. And it is hard to find undervalued stocks in current market.

In Apr - Jun  I bought
- Kingsmen Creative. It is a smallish stake, as I feel that its NERF may have some potential. But that remains to be monitored.
- HSBC. It is a smallish stake for dividends
- OCBC. It is also a smallish stake, as the price ran up to $11 before I could buy more.
- Serbia Dinamik. It is a malaysian stock in Oil and Gas industry that is surprisingly growing in last few years.
- Eagle Hospitality Trust. Buying at average 0.705, as its price drops from the IPO price of 0.78 and its dividend is expected to exceed 8%. The downside is that I will likely see the dividend next year.

I also added to my position on
- HRnet. Currently, I stop adding, as its next few quarters may not post good results due to the not-so-good economic conditions.
- Sunpower and Hang Lung property as price drops.

Sold the following:
- HKland. This is to take profit
- Fraser Commercial Trust at around $1.47 - $1.50. The sale was done at April before its run-up in late June.

Cut down my positions on the following:
- Tat Seng Packaging. Its 1Q results is not good
- Silverlake Axis. The sale is to take some profit and reduce my position to a more comfortable level of 7.3% of my portfolio
- AIMS AMP Industrial Reit. I have a remaining smallish stake in it.
- Acendas Hospitality Reit. Have sold some as $0.91 and $0.965 to take some profit. Likely to keep the remaiing stake for now as it is merging with Ascott Residence Trust

1Q 2019

2019 1Q is turning out to be a good quarter for most investors, including myself. My year-to-date returns is 14%, which more than make up for the 2018 lossess.

In the quarter, I benefitted from increasing stock prices of CSE Global (bought at average prices of $0.43) and Silverlake Axis. 

Main purchases are 

- CSE Global, as  I think its business is turning around and getting better

- HRnet, a business that has fantastic cashflow

- MyEG (Msia stock), whose business is turning around 

- George Kent (Msia stock), who has a good order book and strong moat in water meter business while it waits for Malaysia to re-start railway projects 

- Matrix Concepts, a township developer with good ROE and dividend yield

- Sunpower. Miss this stock when it was at its low late last year. 

Sold the following stocks

- City Dev. A small stake bought at $8.15 and sold at $8.90

- Roxy Pacifit. Cut the losses. Bought at $0.48 and sold at $0.40

- Cosco Intl Ship. Sold at close to breakeven price. While it has a lot of cash, I was spooked by its declining profitability in 2018.

- Hui Xian Reit. Sold at slight profit to reduce my allocation to Reits. The profit is not a lot in annualised terms

Reduce my position in following stocks

- Aim Amps Industrial Reit. Reduce to lower my allocation to Reits. 

- China bank stocks. Reduce by a third, as its profit underperform expectations

Seems quite a lot of activity in 1Q 2019.

Key lessons noted n this quarter are:

1 The best time to buy/profit from stocks are when the business are affected by poor sentiment, politics or temporary factors. 

2 For bonds, high yield are dangerous. This lesson is from Hyflux bonds and Lehmann minibond. Many people bought the bonds due to its attractive yield and good reputation. But the point is that if the business is that good and the bonds safe. why did the underwriter/professionals price the bond to offer a high yield compare to other bonds. If the bonds are priced to offer a high yield, then it most likely imply higher default risk. This was my thinking then when I encounter Hyflux bond and Lehmann minibond, and hence I did not buy any such bonds.