Where is the investment clock/cycle now?
China/HK -- 7-8 o'clock
HK stocks have shot up since the low in end Oct/early Nov, after China ceased zero Covid and re-opened
US -- 4 o'clock
I am guessing that it is more likely for US stocks to fall further than to recover, given that earnings growth may be negative in 2023 and Fed may increase interest rate more than expected.
Nonetheless, there is slight chance that US stocks may recover this year.
Singapore -- 11 o'clock ?
I do not really know where Singapore market stands currently. Anyway, my allocation to Singapore stock market is not a lot.
SG Reits -- 3 o'clock ?
I feel that reits have more room to fall. Currently, the high interest environment has not been fully reflected in the reits earnings, as a large portion of their debt is fixed. When their debt is renewed in future, it will incur higher interest cost and hence lower dividends. The longer the high interest environment sustain, the worse it will be for reits.
Hence, I do not have much position in reits. Of course, I may be wrong. The above is just my guesswork.
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