2024 Review 3: Returns

 1) Total Asset Growth

Total asset growth is 25% this year, mainly boosted by equity returns. As I stopped working in 2023, there is no wage income this year. 

2) Asset Composition / Allocation

Allocation-wise, I stick to mainly 60% equities - 40% non-equities over the years. 

	Cash	Monies in CPF	Fixed Deposit / T-Bills / Bond ETFs*	Stocks*
2019	12%	23%	8%	57%
2020	9%	23%	2%	66%
2021	13%	21%	4%	61%
2022	12%	22%	11%	55%
2023	7%	9%	21%	63%
2024	11%	11%	18%	59%
*Including those bought using SRS / CPF

This year, the equities allocation has dropped, as I divested my world index fund holdings around Aug 2024. Monies in CPF holdings rose, as I did not buy further T-bill after earlier T-bills bought via CPF earlier matured. 

My stocks are broken down into 2-3 parts. CPF-OA Stock Portfolio rose due to CPF funds used to buy Reits and Reits ETF.

	Stocks
	Stock Portfolio (Cash)	SRS / CPF-OA Stock Portfolio	Index ETF (Cash)
2022	73%	11%	17%
2023	74%	11%	16%
2024	85%	15%	0%

3) Stock Portfolio (Cash) Return

This year's return is 45%, outperforming STI and IWDA. The outperformance is mainly due to HK market's good performance this year. 

Year	% Returns	STI (incl Dividends)	IWDA ETF
2020	3.6%	-7.5%	16.5%
2021	14.7%	12.5%	22.9%
2022	-13.7%	7.6%	-18.6%
2023	4.5%	4.0%	24.5%
2024	45.2%	21.9%	27.1%

3.1) Composition

HK shares form the bulk of the portfolio. The 'other stocks' refer to LVMH. 

I also split the stocks by type or reason for buying it. 'Hedging' refer to CNOOC and Barrick Gold bought as slight hedge against inflation. 

3.2) Position Sizing

My number of positions are relatively unchanged, while the Top 10 concentration dropped to 58%. 

	Number of Stocks	Top 10 position size
At end 2016	21
At end 2020	39	46%
At end 2021	19	71%
At end 2022	18	72%
At end 2023	24	68%
At end 2024	25	58%

My top 5 positions are as followed. 

12%	Tencent
8%	Ping An
7%	Plower Bay Tech
6%	FUTU
6%	Yum China

3.3) Slight update at end of year

Purchase: 

Barrick Gold, bought at $16.75, due to exercise of sold put option. The position is small and it is bought as hedge against inflation. 

Sale: 

Shanghai Conant, sold all at $22. Its share price has run up recently from $15 to $22, due to its involvement in AR/VR glasses. Decide to take profit, as the price seems a bit expensive and it is not a core holding. 

4) Thoughts for 2025

Based on past history, after 1-2 good years of returns, my stock portfolio will suffer some negative drawdown the following year. 

Hence, after a good 40+% stock portfolio returns in 2024, there's a chance of negative return in 2025. Nonetheless, I feel that HK market should have some upside in 2025, given the negativity in last few years, esp if Chinese govt can roll out large fiscal stimulus and stabilise its real estate market. 

If 2025 also provides good stock returns, the chances of negative returns in 2026 rose signficantly and it may be prudent to increase allocation to non-equities in end-2025.